Introduction to this report:
Under the influence of multiple factors such as changes in industry policies and market demand combined with adjustments to the company's business structure and sales model, performance is under pressure in the short term, and the smooth promotion of assembly lines is expected to drive steady growth of independent products. Maintain an increase in holdings rating.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an increase in holdings rating. Considering the increase in assembly line promotion market investment and R&D investment, the 2024-2025 EPS forecast was lowered to 0.70/0.86 yuan (originally 0.97/1.16 yuan), and the 2026 EPS forecast was 1.05 yuan. Referring to the industry average valuation, the 2024 PE 25X was given, and the target price was lowered to 17.50 yuan to maintain the increase rating.
The performance was in line with expectations. In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 2,896 million yuan (-19.75%), net profit attributable to mother of 313 million yuan (-55.84%), after deducting non-net profit of 316 million yuan (-55.46%). In Q1 2024, we achieved revenue of 616 million yuan (-8.88%), net profit to mother of 120 million yuan (+3.05%), after deducting non-net profit of 118 million yuan (-2.00%). The results were basically in line with expectations.
Autonomous conventional reagents are growing steadily. The company accelerates agency business adjustment and channel construction work to increase the sales share and market share of its own products. In '23, independent products accounted for 64.94% of revenue, and the profit contribution reached 85.95%. Sales revenue of conventional products was 1,864 million yuan (+8.27%), of which revenue from immunological reagents was 952 million yuan (+18.68%), revenue from biochemical reagents was 577 million yuan (+2.54%), and revenue from temporary testing reagents was 176 million yuan (+27.38%). Molecular reagents declined sharply due to changes in market demand. 24Q1 is expected to see a steady increase in immunological reagents, a decline in biochemical reagents, and a rapid increase in experimental reagents.
The assembly line was promoted smoothly. The company vigorously promotes the three major laboratory platforms - biochemical, immunological and clinical testing integrated products, and provides terminal customers with flexible laboratory intelligent inspection and analysis lines. In 23, 4016 units (pieces) of large-scale instruments and assembly lines were shipped out of the market, including 189 free assembly lines and 162 blood lines; 1,458 chemiluminescence instruments and 1,369 blood instruments. The instruments introduced into the terminal market will continue to increase sales of test agents.
Risk warning: New product development and sales fall short of expectations; collection policy uncertain