24Q1 profit increased significantly from month to month. In 2023, the company achieved operating income of 51.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.94%, net profit of 2.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.61%, net profit of 2.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.66%; in 24Q1, the company achieved operating income of 9.597 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.88%, a year-on-year decrease of 36.98%, an increase of 815.43% month-on-month, after deducting 638 million yuan in non-net profit. The change in performance was mainly due to a year-on-year decrease of 23.39%, a sharp increase over the previous year. The average sales price of components fell sharply compared to the same period last year and inventory depreciation, which was partly offset by lower manufacturing costs and higher profit margins in the energy storage business.
PV modules: North America accounts for a high proportion of shipments, and advanced production capacity shows latecomer advantage. 2024Q1, after comprehensively considering the market price level and the annual shipping target guidelines, the company achieved a balance between price and volume, and achieved 6.3GW of module shipments in a single quarter, an increase of 3.28% over the previous year, with the North American market accounting for more than 20%. The company gave full play to the latecomer advantages of the new N-type production capacity layout and quickly realized the upgrade of N-type technology. The production capacity of the first phase of 8GW TopCon cells at the Suqian base, and the production capacity of the first phase of 14GW TopCon cells at the Yangzhou base were completed and put into operation as planned. The US 5GW N-type new technology photovoltaic module factory has been officially put into operation in 2023. It is expected that by the end of 2024, the production capacity of rods, silicon wafers, cells and modules will reach 50.4/ 50/55.7/61 GW respectively . In 24 years, the company expects to ship between 42 and 47 GW of components.
Energy storage: Volume began in the first quarter, and order reserves are sufficient. 2024Q1, the shipment volume of the company's energy storage products confirmed revenue is 1 GWh. As the company's second main business, the energy storage business began to expand this year, and revenue in a single quarter was basically the same as for the full year of '23. By the end of 2023, the company's energy storage business had orders of 2.6 billion US dollars.
The company is enriching the SolBank large-scale energy storage product production line in Yancheng Dafeng. The first batch of products has been successfully launched. By the end of 23, the manufacturing capacity of SolBank energy storage systems had been expanded to 10 GWh. It is expected that by the end of 2024, its manufacturing capacity will be further expanded to 20 GWh. In 24 years, the company expects energy storage system shipments between 6.0 and 6.5 GWh.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. In 2024-2026, we expect the company's net profit to be 33.27/40.56/5.105 billion yuan, respectively, up 14.6%, 21.9%, and 25.9% year-on-year, corresponding EPS 0.90, 1.10, and 1.38 times, respectively. Referring to the average PE value of comparable companies, we gave the company 17-19 times PE in 24 years, with a corresponding reasonable value range of 15.34-17.14 yuan. For the first time, coverage gave a “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning: Industry demand is declining, competition is intensifying, and new technology expansion falls short of expectations.