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惠誉:电动汽车普及将导致2030年石油需求触顶

Fitch: The popularity of electric vehicles will cause oil demand to peak in 2030

新浪美股 ·  Feb 21, 2018 09:40

According to a new report from Fitch rating, with the increasing popularity of electric vehicles, global oil demand may peak from 2029 to 2030.

However, even then, oil demand will not fall sharply, and 2040 of oil demand will be roughly the same as it is today, because the world still needs to consume a lot of oil. However, the absence of demand growth would be a major structural change in the oil market, which could make oil prices more volatile and lower on average.

Fitch also said in the report that developments in 2017 showed that technological changes and increased product awareness could lead to annual global electric vehicle sales of 10 million units by 2025.

Last year, driven by a series of factors such as falling battery costs, consumer preferences and environmental policies, a number of governments and carmakers around the world announced car electrification targets. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC) has raised its forecast for the global size of electric vehicles in 2040 to 250 million from 140 million.

Fitch said that in the best case, that is, if the cost and range of electric vehicles are comparable to those of diesel locomotives, consumers prefer to drive electric vehicles, decision makers authorize and support electrification, and carmakers see the cost-effectiveness of focusing on one drive system, it is not impossible that there will be more than 1 billion electric vehicles in the world by 2040, accounting for more than half of the global total.

But the agency stressed that this was not its "core prediction" because the speed and model at which electric vehicles would be adopted would be more subtle.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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