Investment logic:
The leading domestic aerial work platform company has been growing steadily in revenue and net profit over a long period of time. The company has a complete product system, including arm-type, scissor-type, and mast aerial work platforms, and is in the top five in the global aerial work platform list published by “Access International” in 21-22. With strong products going overseas, the company's revenue and net profit to mother increased from 1,708 million yuan and 480 million yuan to 63.12 billion yuan and 1,867 billion yuan respectively in 18-23. During this period, CAGR reached 29.9% and 31.2% respectively.
Global demand for aerial work platforms is mainly overseas, and the boom in overseas markets is expected to continue.
According to IPAF data, North America and EAME regions account for more than 60% of global aerial work platform ownership. 2024Q1 is the world's leading manufacturer of aerial work platforms, Terex and Oshkosh, with orders of US$24.3/4.23 billion respectively, which is at an all-time high. Furthermore, joint leasing with major North American lessors still maintains optimistic guidance on revenue and profit for 24 years, and we believe that the boom in overseas aerial work platforms is expected to continue.
Multiple factors resonate, and the high performance growth performance of 23 is expected to continue. The company's gross margin for 23 years reached 38.49% (+7.45 pcts year on year), and net profit reached 1,867 billion yuan (YoY +48.51%), mainly due to the three factors of going offshore, electrification, and arm displacement. We are optimistic about the long-term sustainability of the three core factors: 1) Going overseas: the company's overseas revenue accounted for more than 65% in '23, and it is expected to benefit from high overseas demand; 2) Electrification: In recent years, the proportion of the company's products electrified has continued to increase from 58% in '21 to 723 3%, electricity Dynamic chemical products have stronger profitability and meet overseas local requirements. I am optimistic that the company's electrification ratio will increase further in the future; 3) High value-added arm displacement: the maximum working height of the company's arm products will increase from 30.3 meters in 2020 to 44 meters in 23 years, the added value of high-rice products is higher and profitability is stronger. The gross margin of the company's arm products increased from 18.2% to 30.5% in 21-23 (increase of 12.3 pcts during the period). In '22, the company passed an aerial work platform with a fixed increase layout of 36-50 meters. As the production capacity of the Phase V plant gradually landed, see The company's high-meter arm release led to the release of performance.
Profit forecasts, valuations, and ratings
We expect the company's revenue for 24-26 to be 77.81/97.52/ 11.65 billion yuan, and net profit to mother will be 22.60/27.29/32.58 billion yuan, corresponding PE of 15/12/10 times. The company was given 18 times PE in 24 years, corresponding to a target price of 80.35 yuan. For the first time, coverage was given a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Market competition increases risks, production capacity expansion falls short of expectations, and trade friction risks.