公司2024 年一季度实现营收237.47 亿元，同比高增58.22%，主要系房地产开发业务结转规模增加所致。实现归母净利润3.32 亿元，同比增长22.22%，增速低于营收主要是结转项目中公司权益占比下降导致，少数股东损益占净利润的比例为64.53%，2023 年同期为35.85%。毛利率14.50%，同比增长1.88 个百分点，主要系公司城市聚焦战略提高了结转项目利润率所致。Incidents:
On April 30, the company released its report for the first quarter of 2024. The first quarter achieved operating income of 23.747 billion yuan, up 58.22% year on year; realized net profit of 332 million yuan, up 22.22% year on year; realized net profit deducted from non-return to mother was 292 million yuan, up 8% year on year; and gross profit margin was 14.50%, up 1.88 percentage points year on year.
Revenue and profit increased, and gross margin gradually recovered
The company achieved revenue of 23.747 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 58.22%, mainly due to an increase in the carry-over scale of the real estate development business. Net profit attributable to mother was 332 million yuan, up 22.22% year on year. The growth rate was lower than revenue mainly due to a decline in the company's equity share in carry-over projects. The ratio of minority shareholders' profit and loss to net profit was 64.53%, compared to 35.85% for the same period in 2023. The gross profit margin was 14.50%, an increase of 1.88 percentage points over the previous year, mainly due to the company's city-focused strategy, which increased the profit margin of carry-over projects.
The sales scale is leading in the industry, and the absolute volume is still under pressure
Affected by the overall market decline, the base for the same period in 2023 was high. From January to January to 2024, the company achieved a cumulative sales amount of 44.36%; achieved a sales area of 1.665,900 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 45.43%; and the average sales price was 241,000 yuan/square meter, up 1.96% year-on-year.
According to data from the Central Index Institute, the company ranked among the top six in terms of sales area and sales amount.
The pace of land acquisition is actively recovering, and we continue to cultivate core cities
According to data from the China Index Institute, from January to January 2024, the company's cumulative equity acquisition amount was 6.549 billion yuan, an increase of 30.98%; the cumulative equity acquisition area was 349,600 square meters, an increase of 34.46% over the previous year; and the cumulative value of additional equity was 15.426 billion yuan, an increase of 36.86% over the previous year. The company insists on focusing on core cities. New land acquisition projects are mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta region, which is expected to gradually increase profitability through high-quality projects.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
We expect the company's 2024-2026 revenue to be 1920/2121/229.4 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.72%/10.44%/8.19%, net profit to mother of 87.0/102.0/11.31 billion yuan, respectively, year-on-year growth rates of 37.59%/17.34%/10.87%, EPS of 0.96/1.13/1.25 yuan/share, respectively, and a 3-year CAGR of 21.41%. In view of the company's sales position at the forefront of the industry, active land acquisition, and smooth financing channels. Referring to comparable company valuations, we gave the company 15 times PE in 2024, with a target price of 14.39 yuan, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Market restoration falls short of expectations, policy regulation falls short of expectations, completion pace falls short of expectations