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东吴证券风电23年&24Q1总结:整机盈利承压 零部件分化明显

Dongwu Securities Wind Power 23 & 24Q1 Summary: Significant differentiation of components under pressure on the profit of the whole machine

Zhitong Finance ·  May 9 07:16

In '23 & 24Q1, revenue in the wind power sector rose year on year and profit declined year on year.

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Dongwu Securities released a research report stating that in '23 & 24Q1, revenue in the wind power sector increased year on year and profit declined year on year. Total machine revenue declined slightly year-on-year, and profits were under pressure, and wind farm transfers contributed the main profit. In terms of components, profits from bearings and blades are under pressure, and both converter revenue and profit have increased. Haifeng Jiangsu and Guangdong have all made positive progress. The price competition for complete machines is heating up, and the profit pressure on parts is high.

Investment advice:

Sea cable: Deep-sea value has increased. 500kv+ has certification and project experience barriers, leading players are strong, and second-line selection is flexible and deterministic. We recommend Dongfang Cable (continuous breakthroughs in overseas layout, and many new territorial projects are expected to help increase orders), focus on Qifan Cable (the advantages of Shanghai and Fujian, Zhejiang Guangdong orders have all broken through, and ultra-high voltage from 0-1), Zhongtian Technology, and Hengtong Optoelectronics (communication coverage).

Towers: Demand from both seas is strong, and the increase in the proportion of conduit frames in 24 years has led to structural optimization. We recommend Tianshun Wind Energy (the layout of the conduit frame benefits from the development of the southern sea breeze, and the layout connects to sea breeze exports in Europe), Daikin Heavy Industries (double sea strategy, first-mover export advantage, and continued to win overseas orders), Haili Wind Power (the purest sea wind standard, production capacity release to meet the outbreak in Jiangsu), and Taisheng Wind Energy (land tower export has a profit advantage and sea wind release is imminent).

Casting and forging parts: We recommend Riyue Co., Ltd. (fine processing and export further enhance profitability), Jinlei shares (forging has strong profitability, casting and crawling opens up space); complete machines: recommend Sany Heavy Energy, Mingyang Intelligence, and Goldwind Technology; Blade: Focus on the new materials of the times and intermediate materials technology. Bearings: Focus on Chongde Technology, Xinqianglian (mechanical coverage), and Changsheng Bearings.

Tianfeng Securities's main views are as follows:

In '23 & 24Q1, revenue in the wind power sector rose year on year, and profit declined year on year. The wind power sector in '23 was 284.1 billion yuan, up 6.4%; net profit to mother was 15.68 billion yuan, down 27.7%; the same increase in revenue in '23 was mainly due to a 102% increase in domestic installed capacity, which was significantly hedged by large-scale price competition. Profits showed an initial improvement in fan and tower exports, but large-scale price competition reduced the total volume+ocean wind progress, which fell short of expectations and led to a decline in profit structure. 24Q1 revenue was 48.06 billion yuan, +3.2%/-47% YoY, net profit to mother was 3.09 billion yuan, -33%/+88% YoY.

Converters and bearings have recovered significantly in 23 years, and the whole machine and blades continue to be pressurized. Year-on-year revenue growth rate in 23: converter > blade > submarine cable > tower > complete machine > operator > casting and forging parts; net profit growth rate year over year: converter (88%) > bearing (11%) > submarine cable (1%) > cast and forging parts (-0.5%) > operator (-5%) > tower (-6%) > blade (-32%) > complete machine (-63%). Only operators achieved the same increase in 24Q1. 24Q1 revenue year-on-year growth rate: complete machine > blade > operator > submarine cable > bearing > converter > cast and forging > tower cylinder. Net profit to mother grew at a year-on-year rate: operators (5%) > submarine cables (-12%) > towers (-25%) > converters (-29%) > blades (-36%) > complete machines (-46%) > castings (-62%) > bearings (-117%).

15.5GW of installed capacity was added in January-March '24, an increase of 49%. In '23, 75.9GW of installed capacity was added, an increase of 105%. As Q2 enters wind power construction and the peak delivery season for the industry, Dongwu Securities expects to add 80GW+ of installed capacity in '24, maintaining steady growth. Among them, 70GW+ onshore was flat, with a slight year-on-year increase; 10GW+ offshore increased by about 50%. Since the beginning of the year, progress has continued on the Haifeng approval side, but tenders and project commencement have been slow. In April, the shift from approval to project progress showed signs of acceleration.

Total machine revenue declined slightly year-on-year, and profits were under pressure, and wind farm transfers contributed the main profit. The total machinery sector's revenue in '23 was 122.1 billion yuan, up 2.6%; net profit to mother was 2,853 billion yuan, down 63%; 24Q1 revenue was 18 billion yuan, +22%/-62% year on month; net profit to mother was 761 million yuan, -46%/+387% year on month. As sea breezes fell short of expectations, the tower saw a slight increase in revenue and a decrease in profit. The tower sector's revenue in '23 was 22.8 billion yuan, up 9.6%; net profit to mother was 1.68 billion yuan, down 6.2%; 24Q1 revenue was 2.82 billion yuan, down 30%/52% from the same period, and net profit to mother was 370 million yuan, -25%/+783% year-on-year.

Submarine cables were also affected by lower sea breezes than expected, and profits remained flat and increased only slightly. Sea Cable's revenue in '23 was 52.4 billion yuan, up 11%; net profit to mother was 4.1 billion yuan, up 1.5%; 24Q1 revenue was 9.55 billion yuan, down 1.7%/33%; net profit to mother was 900 million yuan, -12%/42% YoY. The profitability of castings and forgings has been divided, and the pressure to reduce prices has been strong in 24 years. Foundry and forging revenue in '23 was 26.6 billion yuan, down 0.7%; net profit to mother was 1.65 billion yuan, down 0.5%; 24Q1 revenue was 5.53 billion yuan, down 11%/20%; net profit to mother was 200 million yuan, -62%/+23% YoY. Parts: Bearings and vane profits are under pressure, and converter revenue and profit both increased.

Haifeng Jiangsu and Guangdong have all made positive progress. The price competition for complete machines is heating up, and the profit pressure on parts is high. Submarine Cable 24H1 tenders are still weak. Jiangsu and Guangdong have all made positive progress. They are increasing their export layout, and they are optimistic that H2 orders will pick up. Construction volume of the 24H2 tower in Jiangsu Haifeng is expected to pick up, exports are scarce, orders from Daikin continue to break through, and all other companies (other than Daikin) are speeding up, and they are expected to achieve results after 1-2 years. The profit path of introducing new low-cost parts for the 2401 complete machine has rebounded. Large-scale expansion has decelerated in 24 years, but industrial resource exchange has not weakened. Profits will continue to be under pressure, and more profits will come from rolling development of power plants. There is a lot of pressure to reduce the price of castings and forgings. At the same time, due to large-scale deceleration, new product premiums cannot cover overall price cuts. Profits are under pressure. Some manufacturers have already cut orders, orders are concentrated at the head, and many enterprises are developing new needs from new customers.

Risk warning: competition intensifies, policies change beyond expectations, new installed capacity falls short of expectations, and raw material prices continue to be high.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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