1Q24 outlook: The gross margin of the smartphone/IoT business is expected to be strong. We believe that thanks to increased smartphone and IoT product business efficiency, Xiaomi's 1Q24 gross margin may exceed market expectations (Bloomberg agreed that Xiaomi's gross margin would drop 0.6 percentage points month-on-month). We expect 1q24's smartphone/IoT revenue to grow 33%/21% year over year, and gross margin is expected to improve 3.4/3.3 pp year over year. Based on two drivers, we predict that Xiaomi is expected to achieve a 27% year-on-year increase in revenue and 70% year-on-year net profit under non-GAAP terms. We recommend keeping an eye on the upward trend of Xiaomi's automotive business and the pace of capacity expansion. We raised Xiaomi's 2024/2025/2026 non-GAAP net profit forecast by 18%/12% to RMB 13.7 billion/$14.2 billion/$15.3 billion, maintaining a target price of HK$25 and a “buy” rating based on the SOTP valuation method.
Smartphone/IoT business: Low BOM costs and product portfolio improvements or strong gross margins IDC data shows that 1Q24 shipped 40.76 million Xiaomi smartphones (up 33% year over year, slight increase of 0.02% month on month), and the global smartphone market share was 13.7% (12.6% in 4Q23 and 11.4% in 1Q23). Due to lower material costs, we expect the gross margin of the Xiaomi 1Q24 smartphone to remain strong at 14.6%. We expect Xiaomi to ship 161 million smartphones in 2024, and the gross margin of the business is about 13%. We expect 1q24 Xiaomi IoT sales to increase 21% year over year and gross margin to be 19% (up 3.3 percentage points year over year and 5.1 percentage points month on month), thanks to improved product portfolio.
Automotive business: Focus on climbing the slope and the progress of capacity expansion
We expect that Xiaomi has received orders for about 90,000 cars so far, and we recommend paying attention to the pace of Xiaomi's production capacity expansion and consumer feedback on SU7 in the coming months. We maintain Xiaomi's 2024 vehicle shipment forecast of 100,000 vehicles and the 2024 car-related business revenue forecast of RMB 24 billion.
Maintain target price of HK$25 and “buy” rating
We raised Xiaomi's 2024/2025/2026 non-GAAP net profit forecast by 18%/12% to RMB 13.7 billion/$14.2 billion, maintaining a target price of HK$25 based on the SOTP valuation method (assuming a forward exchange rate of HKD 0.92), which includes our valuation of HK$5.2 per share for Xiaomi's automotive business. Our target price corresponds to 42 times the 2024 forecast PE. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Smartphone demand falls short of expectations; macroeconomic downturn.