2024Q1 经营现金流同比改善，2023 年减值损失大幅减少。(1)2023 年经营净现金流-2.4 亿元(上年9.0 亿元)主要因按计划支付应付款项，Q1-Q4为-3.4/1.5/2.8/-3.2 亿(上年为-2.5/6.1/2.3/3.2 亿元)。2024Q1 经营净现金流1.7 亿元(上年同期-3.4 亿元)同比改善。(2)2023 年收现比91%(上年120%)，付现比79%(上年83%)。(3)2023 年减值损失0.23 亿元(上年1.04 亿元)。Key points of investment:
Maintain an increase in holdings. Due to the significant decline in the company's orders in 2023 and 2024Q1, the forecast for EPS in 2024-2025 was lowered to 0.72/0.78 yuan (originally 0.80/0.94 yuan), and the forecast is that EPS will increase 7% by 0.83 yuan in 2026. Referring to the comparable company's 2024 PE 20 times, the target price was lowered to 14.40 yuan.
Net profit due to mother increased by 50% in 2023, and general engineering contract revenue grew faster. (1) In 2023, revenue of 6.7 billion yuan increased 16% (Q1-Q4 increased 10/9/13/ 27%), general engineering contracting increased 23% to 4.7 billion yuan; net profit to mother increased by 50% (Q1-Q4 increased by 32/15/1/ 252%). (2) Gross profit margin 14.56% (+1.27pct), net profit margin 4.67% (+1.05pct), ROE 16.28% (+3.16pct), balance ratio 59.76% (-13.05pct). (3) 2024Q1's revenue of 1.24 billion yuan increased 2.3%, and net profit to mother of 55.26 million yuan increased 6.6%.
2024Q1 operating cash flow improved year over year, and impairment losses were drastically reduced in 2023. (1) Net operating cash flow of $240 million in 2023 ($90 million last year) was -3.4/1.5/2.8/-320 million in Q1-Q4 (-2.5/6.1/2.3/320 million yuan in the previous year), mainly due to payment of accounts payable according to the plan. 2024Q1's net operating cash flow of 170 million yuan (same period last year - 340 million yuan) improved year over year. (2) In 2023, the payout ratio was 91% (120% the previous year), and the payout ratio was 79% (83% last year). (3) Impairment loss of $23 million in 2023 ($104 million last year).
By deepening corporate reforms and strengthening digital support, profitability will continue to improve. (1) In 2023, new signings of 8 billion yuan decreased by 19%, while 2024Q1 signed 1.7 billion yuan decreased 26% year-on-year. (2) In 2024, reforms will be comprehensively deepened to tap endogenous motivation; capital operations will be actively promoted, and mergers and acquisitions targets will be sought.
(3) Strengthen data analysis and decision support, and vigorously promote project manager responsibility and full cost dynamic management throughout the process. (4) Equity incentive assessment 2023-2025 deducted non-ROE≥10.65/11.09/ 11.62%, operating profit (based on 2021) with a compound growth rate of ≥10.58/10.88/ 11.00%.
Risk warning: Macroeconomic policies are tightening beyond expectations, overseas business operation risks, etc.
