Maintain an increase in holdings rating. Based on the 2024Q1 investment income situation, the 2024 EPS forecast was raised to 0.37 yuan (originally 0.35 yuan), the predicted EPS forecast for 2025 was maintained at 0.40 yuan, and the 2026 forecast EPS was added at 0.43 yuan. The reference sector valuation gave the 2024 target PE 27X, maintained the target price of 10.09 yuan, and maintained an increase in holdings rating.
Revenue for the full year was in line with expectations, and investment losses affected profits. The company's revenue in 2023 was 7.964 billion yuan (+21.3% YoY, same below), net profit attributable to mother of 1,779 million yuan (-5.4%), after deducting non-net profit of 1,815 million yuan (-0.6%). The main reason for the decline in profit was GDS investment losses, with net investment loss of 154 million yuan (2022 net income of 412 million yuan), while asset impairment narrowed significantly from 2022, from 208 million yuan to 0.24 billion yuan. The annual gross margin fell by 3.37pp to 40.79%, which is due to a decline in the gross margin of the imported albumin agency business and an increase in share. 2024Q1's revenue was 2,056 billion yuan (-0.3%), net profit attributable to mother of 757 million yuan (+5.3%), and net profit after deducting non-net profit of 591 million yuan (-16.6%). Under the high base, revenue remained flat. The non-profit side declined due to the decline in gross margin, which was basically in line with expectations.
The self-produced blood products business is developing steadily, and the agency business is contributing more. The company currently has 44 pulp stations. The amount of pulp collected reached a record high of 1,500 tons in 2023 (surpassing 1,400 tons in 2022), with annual revenue of 4.317 billion yuan (+14.5%) of self-produced blood products. Among them, Jingacrylic grew significantly, with revenue of 1,805 billion yuan (+37.5%), albumin slightly declining, revenue of 1,431 billion yuan (-3.9%), and other blood products increased slightly, with revenue of 1,081 billion yuan (+11.7%). The imported albumin/testing business continued to contribute to the increase. Revenue was 35.04 billion yuan/141 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 28%/131%, respectively.
Catalyst: Haier Group's holding project advanced and approved for a new pulp station
Risk warning: changes in terminal supply and demand, changes in control falling short of expectations, risk of investment loss and impairment