Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (NASDAQ:VRTX) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. Vertex Pharmaceuticals beat earnings, with revenues hitting US$2.7b, ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share outperforming analyst reckonings by a solid 14%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Vertex Pharmicals Incorporated（纳斯达克股票代码：VRTX）的投资者将感到高兴，该公司的最新业绩带来了一些强劲的数字。Vertex Pharmaceuticals超过收益，收入达到27亿美元，超出预期，法定每股收益稳步超过分析师预期的14％。分析师通常会在每份收益报告中更新他们的预测，我们可以从他们的估计中判断他们对公司的看法是否发生了变化，或者是否有任何新的问题需要注意。我们认为，读者会发现分析师对明年最新（法定）财报后的预测很有趣。
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Vertex Pharmaceuticals' 30 analysts is for revenues of US$10.8b in 2024. This reflects a credible 5.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$15.31, roughly flat on the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$10.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$14.90 in 2024. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Vertex Pharmaceuticals' earnings potential following these results.
考虑到最新业绩，Vertex Pharmaceuticals的30位分析师的共识预测是，2024年的收入为108亿美元。这反映了与过去12个月相比，收入的可信增长了5.6％。法定每股收益预计为15.31美元，与过去12个月基本持平。在本报告发布之前，分析师一直在模拟2024年的收入为107亿美元，每股收益（EPS）为14.90美元。因此，在这些业绩公布后，人们对Vertex Pharmaceuticals的盈利潜力的共识似乎变得更加乐观了。
The consensus price target was unchanged at US$462, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Vertex Pharmaceuticals, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$577 and the most bearish at US$325 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Vertex Pharmaceuticals shareholders.
共识目标股价保持不变，为462美元，这意味着盈利前景的改善预计不会对股东的价值创造产生长期影响。共识目标股价只是个别分析师目标的平均值，因此——可以很方便地看到基础估计值的范围有多广。对Vertex Pharmicals的看法有所不同，最看涨的分析师将其估值为577美元，最看跌的为每股325美元。分析师对该业务的看法肯定各不相同，但我们认为，估计的分歧还不够广泛，不足以表明Vertex Pharmicals股东可能会有极端的结果。
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Vertex Pharmaceuticals' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 7.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 21% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 18% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Vertex Pharmaceuticals is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
当然，看待这些预测的另一种方法是将它们与行业本身联系起来。很明显，预计Vertex Pharmaceuticals的收入增长将大幅放缓，预计到2024年底的收入按年计算将增长7.5％。相比之下，过去五年的历史增长率为21％。相比之下，该行业的其他公司（根据分析师的预测），后者的总体收入预计每年将增长18％。考虑到预期的增长放缓，很明显，预计Vertex Pharmicals的增长速度也将低于其他行业参与者。
The Bottom Line
底线
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Vertex Pharmaceuticals' earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Vertex Pharmaceuticals' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$462, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
对我们来说，最大的收获是共识的每股收益上调，这表明人们对Vertex Pharmaceuticals明年盈利潜力的看法明显改善。幸运的是，分析师还重申了他们的收入预期，表明收入符合预期。尽管我们的数据确实表明，预计Vertex Pharmaceuticals的收入表现将低于整个行业。共识目标股价稳定在462美元，最新估计不足以对其目标股价产生影响。
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Vertex Pharmaceuticals. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Vertex Pharmaceuticals going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
考虑到这一点，我们不会很快就Vertex Pharmicals得出结论。长期盈利能力比明年的利润重要得多。我们对Vertex Pharmicals的预测将持续到2026年，你可以在我们的平台上免费查看。
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
需要考虑的另一件事是管理层和董事最近是否在买入或卖出股票。我们在此处概述了过去十二个月在我们的平台上所有公开市场股票交易。
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