Key points of investment
Key points of the announcement: In April 2024, Changan Automobile achieved a total wholesale sales volume of 210,133 vehicles, +15.47%/-18.88% year-on-month, respectively. Among them, Hefei Changan's wholesale sales volume was 19,114 units, +51.55%; Chongqing Changan's wholesale sales volume was 92,761 units, +3.87% year over year; Hebei Changan had wholesale sales volume of 11092 units, +36.16% year over year; and Changan Ford sold 18,612 units, +32.92%/-13.33%, respectively. In April 2024, independent brands sold 31649 vehicles overseas, +65.46%/-4.93%, respectively; autonomous passenger cars sold 123,118 units, +9.66%/-21.52%, respectively.
New energy has gone hand in hand with overseas, and sales have bucked the trend. In April, the Group sold 210,000 vehicles, with a new energy penetration rate of 29.9% and an export rate of 18.3%. Overseas and own-brand NEV sales both doubled year-on-year. 1) Domestic: Changan Automobile's wholesale sales volume in April was 210,113 units, +15.47%/-18.88%; overall, from January to April 2024, the cumulative sales volume of its own brands was 761,453 units, +13.32% compared to the same period, and 17,2623 units in April, +12.48%-21.80%, respectively. Among them, passenger cars sold 123118 units, +9.66%/-21.52%. Looking at key models, in April, Deep Blue Motor delivered 12744 units, Avita 5,247 vehicles were delivered; Changan Qiyuan sold a cumulative total of 44,230 units in the first quarter, Changan Ford sold 7,4215 units, and Changan Mazda sold 25,347 vehicles. 2) Overseas: The export sales volume of the company's own brands in April was 31649 vehicles, +65.46%/-4.93%, respectively. Exports accounted for 18.3% of the group's sales, and +5.87/+3.25pct, respectively.
3) New energy: In April, Changan's own brand NEVs sold 51,682 units, +129.74%/-2.48%, respectively. The penetration rate of new energy was 29.9%, and +15.28/+5.93pct, respectively.
Avita & Qiyuan's new car cycle is strong, and global cooperation in overseas markets is accelerating. 1) In terms of a new car, the Changan Qiyuan E07, the world's first mass-produced variable car, debuted at the Beijing Auto Show. Architectures such as 1000+ API interface, SDA central ring network architecture, C2+EDC central computer+scene computer enabled the E07 to successfully achieve a digital twin of automotive products to meet the full range of customization needs of users; the second-generation Uni-V intelligent electric IDD was launched, equipped with a new Blue Whale power platform, IACC intelligent driving assistance system, and future smart cockpit, etc., with a starting price of 114,900 yuan; the Avita 2024 model was fully upgraded at a starting price of 114,900 yuan The cabin, interior space, and the Huawei ADS2.0 advanced smart driving system have been fully upgraded. The starting price starts at 3080,000 yuan, and you can enjoy a subsidy of up to 75,000 yuan. 2) In terms of going overseas, Deep Blue S7 and Changan Qiyuan A05 participated in the UAE New Energy Vehicle and Intelligent Transportation Exhibition. Currently, Changan Automobile has deployed more than 10 models in the Middle East region, covering different categories such as passenger cars, commercial vehicles, pickups, etc., to accelerate the “Haina Baichuan” plan for Changan Automobile's globalization strategy.
Profit forecast and investment rating: We maintain the company's profit forecast for 2024-2026. Net profit to mother was 84/111/12.7 billion yuan, -25%/+31%/+15%, respectively. The corresponding EPS was 0.85/1.11/1.28 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE was 17/13/11 times, respectively, maintaining Changan Automobile's “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Domestic passenger car market price war exceeds expectations; global geopolitical risk.