Matters:
The company released its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report. In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 2,026 billion yuan, +31.86% year on year; net profit to mother of 512 million yuan, -3.89% year on year; comprehensive gross profit margin of 44.03%, -0.95pct year on year; net profit margin to mother 25.26%, -9.40pct year on year. 2024Q1 achieved revenue of 331 million yuan, -42.91% YoY, -46.39%; net profit to mother of 67 million yuan, -61.83% YoY, -30.20% month-on-month; comprehensive gross profit margin of 49.09%, +2.68pct YoY, +5.72pct month-on-month; net profit margin of 20.31%, YoY -10.07pct, +4.71pct month-on-month.
Commentary:
The acceleration of equity incentive charges will affect the company's profit in 2023. In 2023, due to the termination of implementation of the 2022 restricted stock incentive plan, the amount of stock payments already calculated was not refunded. The equity incentive expenses involved in the incentive plan in 2023 were about 108 million yuan. After deducting the above effects, net profit to the mother in 2023 was 619 million yuan, an increase of 14.05% over the previous year.
Actively expand energy storage products and achieve explosive growth in 2023. In 2023, the company actively launched new products such as energy storage inverters and energy storage systems, and achieved revenue of 313 million yuan, an increase of 353.6% over the previous year. The company achieved revenue of 1,414 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 14.0%, gross profit margin of 50.32%, and continued to maintain a high level of profit. The company shipped about 1,318,800 microinverters in 2023, up about 13% year on year; shipments in the first quarter of 2024 were about 230,000 units, a year-on-year decline, mainly because the first quarter of last year was a high point of industry sentiment and a high base. By the end of 2023, the company had 377 R&D personnel, an increase of 77% over the previous year. It is expected that the increase in R&D personnel will lead to product innovation and the expansion of new categories.
Looking ahead to 2024, the company's slightly negative energy storage business is expected to continue to grow rapidly. As European warehousing comes to an end, the company's shipments are expected to increase sequentially in the second quarter. At the same time, the company is actively expanding the energy storage market, optimizing and launching new energy storage products, and has become a new business growth point for the company. It is expected that the company's energy storage business is expected to blossom more in overseas markets this year.
Investment advice: The micro-inverse industry is expected to improve sequentially in the second quarter of this year, and is expected to continue to recover in the third and fourth quarters. With subsequent overseas interest rate cuts, demand is expected to explode further. Considering the impact of overseas inventory on shipments, we adjusted our profit forecast. The company's net profit due to mother for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 6.68/8.28/1,082 million yuan, respectively (value of 882/1,154 million yuan before 24/25), and the current market value corresponding to PE is 29/23/18 times, respectively. Referring to comparable company estimates, 25x PE in 2025 was given, corresponding to a target price of 248 yuan, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Overseas inventory falls short of expectations, demand falls short of expectations due to high overseas interest rates, price war risks due to increased competition, etc.