口蹄疫疫苗有所承压，非口产品表现优异。23 年公司疫苗主业实现收入14.71亿元，同比略增1.35%。分产品来看，其中口蹄疫疫苗在面临“先打后补”政策调整、政府采购规模萎缩以及行业竞争激烈的局面下，销量同比下降11.52%；非口产品方面，受益于新产品的助力和营销策略的调整，整体表现较为突出，其中猪用疫苗方面，圆环系列疫苗23 年销量同比增长24.57%，核心单品圆支二联自2022H1 上市后持续放量，23 年销量增幅高达109.25%，反刍疫苗方面，牛二联疫苗销量同比增长22.89%，布病疫苗则受益于M5-90 产品上市，销量同比增长8.32%；禽苗方面，新流法三联灭活疫苗销量同比增长15.43%。另外，从销售模式来看，23 年公司直销收入5.70 亿，同比大增40.58%；经销收入6.15 亿，同比下降19.56%，政府采购收入2.86 亿，同比增长1.61%。Matters:
The company released its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report: achieved revenue of 1,598 million yuan, yoy +4.55%, net profit to mother of 284 million, yoy +34.64%, deducted from non-return mother of 255 million, yoy +29.74%. 24Q1 achieved revenue of 348 million, yoy -4.42%, net profit to mother of 106 million, yoy -1.05%, deducted from non-return mother of 95.32 million, yoy -5.32%.
Commentary:
The foot-and-mouth disease vaccine is under pressure, and non-oral products have performed well. The company's main vaccine business achieved revenue of 1,471 billion yuan in '23, a slight increase of 1.35% over the previous year. By product, sales of the foot-and-mouth disease vaccine fell 11.52% year on year in the face of “fix first” policy adjustments, shrinking government procurement scale, and fierce competition in the industry; in terms of non-oral products, the overall performance was outstanding. Among them, in terms of pig vaccines, sales of the round ring series vaccine increased 24.57% year on year in 23, and the core single product, Yuanzhi Difang continued to be released after the launch of 2022H1. In terms of ruminant vaccine, sales increased by 109.25% year on year. 22.89% of the vaccine benefited from the launch of M5-90 products, and sales increased 8.32% year on year; in terms of poultry seedlings, sales of the new vaccine triple inactivated vaccine increased 15.43% year on year. In addition, looking at the sales model, the company's direct sales revenue in '23 was 570 million yuan, up 40.58% year on year; distribution revenue was 615 million, down 19.56% year on year; government procurement revenue was 286 million yuan, up 1.61% year on year.
Gross margin continued to improve, and cost control was steady. In '23, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 59.19%, a year-on-year increase of 4.02pct; in 24Q1, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 60.80%, an increase of 1.11pct year-on-year, and 4.47pct.
It is mainly due to the company's continuous cost reduction and efficiency through process optimization, and vigorously promoting the marketing of high-margin non-oral vaccines. 2024Q1, the company's sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios were 12.70%, 8.85%, 9.05%, and -4.25%, respectively. The year-on-year ratio was +0.06pct, +1.02pct, +1.93pct, and -0.64pct, respectively. The net interest rate was 30.62%, up 0.33pct year-on-year.
Strong investment in research and development has been maintained for many years, and positive progress has been made in the non-plague vaccine. The company invested 230 million yuan in R&D in 23 years, accounting for 14.39% of revenue. During the period 2018-2023, the company invested 1.23 billion yuan in R&D, with an average annual investment of more than 200 million yuan, accounting for an average revenue ratio of more than 13%, and laid out more than 40 new R&D pipelines over the next five years. Among them, in terms of research and development of an important single African swine fever vaccine, the company has established an integrated research and development platform for non-plague vaccines based on its own P3 laboratory, and has now seen initial results: among them, the non-plague subunit vaccine has officially submitted emergency review materials to the Ministry of Agriculture in 2023 and entered the efficacy evaluation stage; the non-mRNA vaccine is also entering the delivery, adjuvant, and immune enhancer integration stage. The world's first animal mRNA vaccine production workshop invested by the company has passed static inspection by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. We expect that if related products are approved for listing in the future, it is expected to bring a significant increase in the company's operations.
Investment advice: The cycle is expected to reverse. I am optimistic that the company's non-retail business will continue to gain strength and maintain a strong rating. The company gradually got rid of its dependence on a single major type of foot-and-mouth disease vaccine. With the continuous improvement of the non-oral product matrix and the continuous release of single products including round branch and vaccine, the downstream farming side gradually ushered in an upward boom. The company's growth potential can be expected. Based on the recovery pace of downstream demand and the pace of the company's product release, we adjusted and predicted net profit of 3.78 million and 472 million yuan (previous values were 3.66 and 450 million), and introduced a 26-year profit forecast of 561 million, referring to peer-comparable company valuation levels. Historical valuation level, We gave the company 33 times PE in 24 years, adjusted the target price to 11.22 yuan, and maintained a “strong push” rating.
Risk warning: Downstream demand recovery falls short of expectations, product competition intensifies, new product development progress falls short of expectations, etc.