健帆生物(300529):内外生态优化 经营改善趋势有望持续

Jianfan Biology (300529): The trend of optimizing internal and external ecology and improving management is expected to continue

國泰君安國際 ·  May 8

Introduction to this report:

The external policy environment and internal team ecology were improved in Q1 2024. The performance exceeded expectations, and the management improvement trend is expected to continue. Maintain an increase in holdings rating.

Key points of investment:

Maintain an increase in holdings rating. Considering the improvements in the external policy environment and internal team ecology, the 2024-2025 EPS forecast was raised to 1.06/1.35 yuan (originally 0.97/1.19 yuan), and the 2026 EPS forecast was 1.72 yuan. Referring to the industry average valuation, the 2024 PE 35 X was given, and the target price was raised to 37.10 yuan to maintain the increase rating.

24Q1 results exceeded expectations. The company achieved revenue of 1,922 million yuan (-22.84%), net profit attributable to mother of 436 million yuan (-50.93%), deducted non-net profit of 409 million yuan (-50.26%), and net operating cash flow of 917 million yuan. 24Q1 achieved revenue of 744 million yuan (+30.00%), net profit to mother of 285 million yuan (+44.90%), after deducting non-net profit of 271 million yuan (+42.74). 2024Q1 performance exceeded expectations.

Internal and external factors weighed on 23-year results. The year-on-year decline in business performance in 2023 was mainly affected by 1) external factors such as the phased contraction of industry demand, policy adjustments in the medical industry, and increased competition among peers; 2) short-term pain caused by company change, optimal management, and personnel fluctuation/alternation of old and new; 3) 23Q4 actively lowered the price of HA130 products, while changes in product structure led to an increase in the proportion of equipment categories driving gross profit margins; 4) insisting on using academics to inspire market demand and increased investment in R&D led to a year-on-year increase in sales and R&D expenses, while share payments and goodwill further reduce profit margins.

It bottomed out and rebounded in 24Q1, and business improvements are expected to continue. The external policy environment and internal team ecology have all been improved. Medical service fee policies in many provinces have been optimized and implemented, and the demand for clinical diagnosis and treatment is expected to increase further. Initiate comprehensive internal reforms, optimize the organizational structure, reform the assessment mechanism, and carry out various tasks to reduce costs and increase efficiency. Remarkable results have been achieved so far. 24Q1 achieved sales revenue of 692 million yuan (+85.51%) of various blood perfuser/adsorber products, and the improvement trend in business is expected to continue.

Risk warning: New product development and sales fall short of expectations; collection policy uncertain

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