Incident: The company released its 2023&2401 financial report on April 30, achieving revenue of 2,114 billion yuan in 2023, -13.39% year on year; net profit to mother of 367 million yuan, or -33.75% year on year.
The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.90 yuan for every 10 shares to all shareholders. The total amount of capital paid by the company to repurchase shares is 32 million yuan, with a total cash dividend of about 142 million yuan, with a dividend ratio of 38.73%. 2401 achieved revenue of 685 million yuan, +35.43% YoY, +24.76% month-on-month; net profit to mother was 105 million yuan, +83.25% YoY, +99.96%.
Revenue pressure in 2023 was mainly due to demand falling short of expectations+the impact of the international market. 2401 downstream demand is driving a sharp increase in revenue. 1) Bio-based long-chain binary acid: 2023 revenue of 1,908 billion yuan, -8.99% YoY, sales +2.22% YoY; average price YoY -10.97%.
The company achieved results in the release of 40,000 tons of sebacic acid production capacity in Taiyuan and market development, and sales increased year-on-year. As demand at home and abroad fell short of expectations, the price of long chain binary acid dragged down revenue. As of the end of 2023, long chain binary acid inventory was +33.23%; 2) Bio-based polyamides and monomers: 2023 revenue of 154 million yuan, -33.27% year on year, sales volume -31.34% year on year; average price was -2.82% year on year. The main reason for the decline is that bio-based polyamide products are in the commercialization and promotion stage. Downstream customers require time to improve supporting processes, equipment, and customer certification processes, and capacity utilization is hampering revenue. By region, domestic/overseas revenue in 2023 was +8.86%/-35.21% year-on-year, respectively, and overseas revenue was greatly affected by the international market. The company's 2401 revenue growth was mainly due to the recovery in downstream demand and the results of the company's sebacic acid market expansion.
Some of the company's products are still in the promotion period, and profitability is under pressure in stages. The company's gross margin in 2023 was 35.24%, -3.79pcts year-on-year. By product, the gross margin of the company's long-chain binary acid series/bio-based polyamide series was 37.86%/-17.99%, -2.83 pcts/-10.65pcts year-on-year. The main reason for the decline in gross margin of the long chain binary acid series is that sebacic acid products are still in the promotion period, and the sales price is relatively low. After excluding sebacic acid, the gross margin of the company's biological method long chain diacid products remained stable year on year; the company's bio-based polyamide series is also in the promotion period, and its production capacity utilization rate is low. 2401's gross margin was 28.68%, -5.35pcts year-on-year, and -1.02pcts month-on-month. Optimistic about the release of new project capacity and strategic cooperation driving medium- to long-term growth, the company is promoting the construction of new projects. According to the announcement, the company's bio-based polyamide engineering technology research center and the project with an annual output of 30,000 tons of long-chain binary acid and 20,000 tons of long-chain polyamide have been completed in 23 years. The Shanxi industry plans to first build part of the production capacity by the end of 24 due to the bio-based polyamide project (of which a high-temperature nylon demonstration line with an annual output of 5,000 tons was completed by the end of 2023). The company plans to raise additional capital and introduce China Merchants Group as an indirect shareholder, which is expected to accelerate the commercialization process of bio-based polyamide composite products. Furthermore, the company signed a joint venture agreement with Korea's 3PCOM in January '24 to develop thermoplastic bio-based polyamide composites applications (hydrogen storage and transportation, urban air traffic, etc.).
Investment advice: The company's net profit for 24/25/26 is estimated to be 5.11/7.92/1,180 billion yuan, covered for the first time, giving it a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Project commissioning falls short of expectations; demand falls short of expectations; competitive landscape deteriorates.