Source: Zhitong Finance

As renewable energy sources such as wind energy and solar energy continue to expand at a pace that far exceeds traditional fossil fuels such as coal, the share of renewable energy in the global electricity scale rose to a record 30% last year. Statistics from the energy think tank Ember show that this trend is expected to continue to accelerate this year. The organization predicts that the growth rate of clean energy will far exceed the overall growth rate of electricity demand, and will cause fossil fuel and fossil-derived fuel generation to drop by about 2% in 2024.

Although gas and coal power generation (the latter was mainly driven by a sharp drop in hydropower generation due to the drought) also increased last year, Ember predicts this trend will end this year.

“The declining trend in carbon emissions in the power industry is now inevitable,” said Dave Jones (Dave Jones), head of global insights at Ember. “But the rate at which emissions are falling depends specifically on how fast the renewable energy revolution continues.”

According to the latest statistics, nearly one-third of the world's electricity comes from renewable energy sources

Ember's statistics show that the rapid growth rate of renewable energy in recent years has been largely driven by solar power generation sites. As manufacturers from China and other countries increase supply and offer record low prices, the cost of solar power generation has dropped dramatically.

Under the energy transition trend, renewable energy generation will continue to eat away at the share of traditional fuels

In order to fully control carbon emissions, the global shift to renewable energy has gradually accelerated in recent years, which means that renewable energy generation is expected to continue to expand under the energy transition trend. According to information, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts in a report that the share of renewable energy generation in global power generation will exceed one-third by 2024. The International Energy Agency predicts that renewable energy will partially cover the expected increase in electricity demand between 2023 and 2024. It is expected that by 2024, the share of renewable energy generation in global power generation will exceed one-third; according to weather conditions, 2024 is likely to be the first year that global renewable energy generation exceeds coal power generation.

The International Energy Agency recently published a column saying that demand for coal, gas and oil is expected to peak before 2030. The energy regulator predicts that fossil fuel consumption will begin to decline this decade due to the continued shift to renewable energy and widespread adoption of electric vehicles around the world. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol (Fatih Birol) said, “We are seeing the end of the fossil fuel era, and we must prepare for the next era.”

According to the IEA's main baseline forecast data, during the six-year period 2023-2028, the IEA expects the world to add up to 3,684 GW of renewable energy installed capacity, which means that the total amount of installed renewable energy will be about double the current scale. According to the IEA's forecast trajectory, it is expected that by 2030, the installed capacity will reach an astonishing 9,000 GW, or about 2.5 times the current level. The IEA predicts that by 2028, renewable energy generation will account for at least 42% of the world's total electricity generation.

In the EU, EU legislators voted in the second half of 2023 to increase the EU's share of renewable energy to more than 40% by 2030 and relax licensing procedures. The European Parliament voted in the second half of 2023 to increase the share of renewable energy such as solar energy in the EU energy structure from 30% to 42.5% by 2030. This goal is being carried out in the context of promoting the accelerated development of clean energy around the world. Therefore, it is conceivable that over the next 7 years or so, the EU will expand renewable energy coverage at a more rapid pace to curb the warming trend and get rid of heavy dependence on fossil fuels such as petroleum.

The French government plans to drastically increase the installed capacity of wind, solar and hydroelectric power generation from about 63.5 GW in 2022 to 140-175 GW within 12 years, and will increase the scale of use of biogas, renewable energy, synthetic fuels, hydrogen and carbon capture.