Introduced simeglutide similar drugs, added a new army to the GLP-1 pipeline, maintained the 5/7 announcement of the purchase rating company, obtained exclusive commercial rights in mainland China for the hypoglycemic indications of Beijing peptidebiological phase 3 clinical product ZT001 simeglutide, and the right to cooperate to develop overseas markets. Since then, the company has formed a liraglutide similar drug (hypoglycemic 12M23 approved for marketing, second in China) +GLP-1/GIP (THDBH 120/121, phase 1 clinical hypoglycemic) +GLP-1/GIP (THDBH 120/121, phase 1 hypoglycemic clinical trial), clinically approved for weight loss ) +GLP-1 small molecule (THDBH 110/111, hypoglycemic phase 1 clinical) GLP-1 pipeline full layout. Considering the company's slight price reduction in insulin collection contract renewal, we expect net profit of 1,167/13.80/1,643 billion yuan in 24-26, and a target price of 14.08 yuan (previous value 15.73 yuan) for 24 x PE for 24 years (comparable company Wind agreed to be 23x, leading company gave a premium).
Simeglutide: the world's first long-acting GLP-1
Simeglutide was originally developed by Novo Nordisk. Its hypoglycemic indications were approved by the FDA in '17, approved by the NMPA in '21, and global sales for hypoglycemic indications were 13.88 billion US dollars (+66% yoy) in '23, including sales of 5.08 billion yuan (137% yoy) in the Chinese market, which grew rapidly. Currently, 11 companies, including Huadong Pharmaceutical and Lizhu, have entered phase 3 clinical trials in China. Among them, Plastidine Biology entered phase 3 clinical trials in March '24, and plans to enroll 524 people. We believe that many biosimilar products are expected to enter the market after the original Smeglutide patent expires in March '26. Considering Tonghua Dongbao is deeply involved in insulin and has a strong sales base in the field of sugar reduction, we believe that simeglutide is expected to resonate with the approved liraglutide, lay a good foundation for subsequent GLP-1 innovations, and enhance the company's performance.
The capital increase in Junhe Biopharmaceuticals and the entry into the Growth Hormone+ Medical and Aesthetic Circuit Company announced on the same day that it was a Series B investor to increase the capital of 100 million yuan to acquire 8.6759% of the company's shares. Junhe Biopharmaceutical's main pipeline products include: 1) JHM01: clinical phase 3, recombinant growth hormone injection, intended for growth disorders caused by insufficient growth hormone secretion in children; 2) JHM03: clinical phase 1/2, recombinant botulinum toxin, intended to remove wrinkles (lines between eyebrows), upper and lower limb cramps, hyperhidrosis, strabismus, etc., second in the world (progress is second only to Chongqing Yuyan); 3) JHM02:
Pre-clinical, recombinant long-acting growth hormone injection; 4) JHM08: preclinical, recombinant human collagen (type I), class 3 medical devices; 5) JHM09: Class 2 medical device registration, class 3 pre-clinical medical device, recombinant human collagen (type III).
Insulin collection: All insulin products won the bid for Class A
On April 23, the results of the national insulin collection renewal were announced. All of the company's insulin products won the bid with Class A (90% of the first year's purchase demand can be obtained). Among them, Gacin insulin and Mendong 30/50 won the bid in Class A1 (100% of the first year's purchase demand can be obtained as the base amount), and the drop was small (with an average price reduction of 11% for second-generation insulin, and ~ 40% reduction in the price of insulin glycine). We believe that winning the full Class A bid is expected to drive the three companies Generating insulin doses to help the company's long-term insulin business Steady development.
Risk warning: Product sales fall short of expectations, risk of product price reduction, R&D progress falling short of expectations.