Event Overview: 24Q1 revenue also increased 6.8%, compared to a recovery of 96% in '19. Performance increased sharply and recovered to 64% in '19. 24Q1 achieved revenue of 3.26 billion yuan/yoy +6.8%, recovering to 96% in the same period in '19; net profit to mother of 190 million yuan/yoy +34.6%, recovering 64% from 19Q1; net profit after deducting net profit of 62 million yuan/yoy -31.2%, recovering 88% from 19Q1.
Among them, domestic hotel revenue was 2.26 billion yuan/yoy +7%, a recovery rate of 94% compared to 19Q1; revenue from overseas attractions was 884 million yuan/yoy +6%, a recovery rate of 101% compared to 2019.
RevPAR: The degree of recovery in Q1 domestic/overseas was -1.6%/-0.1%, respectively. 1) The overall RevPAR in 24Q1 was 145 yuan/yoy -1.6%, recovering to 101% in the same period in 2019 (overall recovery rate of the #对比24Q1 first trip 93%); among them, ADR 242 yuan/yoy +1.3%, recovery rate 119%, Occ 59.92% /yoy-1.7pct, down 10.6 pct from 19Q1. 2) Looking at the structure, medium and high-end RevPAR 165.7 yuan/yoy -4.0%, recovery 86.7%, economical RevPar 91.5 yuan/yoy -1.2%, recovery rate 86%, full-service hotel RevPar 209.6 yuan/yoy -5.4%; 3) 24Q1 overseas overall RevPAR 35.65 EUR/yoy -0.1%, recovering to 110% in the same period in 2019, of which ADR 63.37 euros/yoy +1.6%, recovery 115%, Occ 56.26% /yoy-0.9pct, down 2.6 pct from 19Q1.
In terms of store opening: The year-on-year increase in new and net store openings, leading the industry in terms of the number of mid-range and above guest rooms. 1) 222 new businesses opened in 24Q1, net increase of 147 households/yoy +32.4%, including 7 fewer direct businesses, 153 more franchises, and 1 more full-service (#对比首旅新开业205 home/yoy flat, net opening of 32, net opening of 18 in 23Q1); 2) Looking at the structure, the net increase in the number of middle- and high-end stores opened in 24Q1 accounted for 96%; as of the end of 24Q1, the number of hotels opened by the company reached 12,595 (#对比首旅6295), of which the number of middle and high-end properties accounted for 12,595 (). 58.6% (#对比首旅28 .2%)
Profit forecast and investment advice: We expect the company's 24-26 revenue to be 155/168/18.4 billion yuan, yoy +6%/8%/9%, net profit to mother of 15/18/2.1 billion yuan, yoy +54%/18%/16%, and PE corresponding to the current stock price is 20/17/15x, respectively. Follow up on the pace of release of business travel demand, focus on the company's overseas debt structure optimization and CRS fee progress, and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: risk of macroeconomic fluctuations, risk of business travel demand falling short of expectations, risk of central reservation fee collection falling short of expected risk.