Mobile phones: Shipments have recovered strongly, and market share has increased. According to Canalys and IDC estimates, the 2024Q1 Xiaomi smartphone shipped 4080/40.7 million units, YoY +33.8% %/ 33%, and the market share increased to 14% and YOY+3pct, ranking third in the world.
2024Q1. In terms of shipment volume, we expect Xiaomi Group's 2024Q1 mobile phone shipments to reach 40.8 million units, an increase of 34% over the previous year. Due to the increase in BOM costs, we expect the gross margin of Xiaomi's mobile phone business to decline month-on-month in Q1, but remain at a high level year-on-year. Looking ahead to the whole year, we expect the Xiaomi mobile phone business to recover well in 2024. We expect shipments to reach 166 million units, yoy +14%, and ASP may also increase under the impetus of high-end technology.
Sales of Xiaomi cars were impressive, and gross profit exceeded expectations. According to Xiaomi Auto's Weibo on May 1, 7058 units have been delivered in April since the first delivery was made on April 3. As of 24:00 on April 30, the number of Xiaomi SU7 locks had reached 8,8063, with women accounting for 28% of car buyers, 29% of BBA car owners, and 52.5% of Apple users. Lei Jun announced that the 2024 Xiaomi SU7 delivery target will exceed 100,000 units.
In terms of intelligent driving, Xiaomi Pilot has a full-stack self-developed intelligent driving algorithm. Among them, Xiaomi City NOA aims to start user testing in April, officially open 10 cities in May, launch nationwide in August, and reach the first tier in 2024. Currently, Xiaomi Auto's smart driving team has more than 1,000 people, and plans to expand to 1,500 people this year and 2,000 people next year. In terms of smart cockpits, Xiaomi is expected to achieve cross-terminal interconnection across the entire ecosystem of people and vehicles through “Surge OS”. Furthermore, Xiaomi promotes multi-modal integration of AI models and full vehicle perception, and the new Xiaoai Big Model has deep intelligent voice control of the car.
The Xiaomi Group's latest strategy has been upgraded to a “full ecosystem of people and cars”. The ecological chain is closed to enhance the interactive experience, increase the profit margin of the automobile business and enhance business value through IoT products and value-added services in the future. According to Xiaomi Investor Day, the gross margin of Xiaomi cars is expected to be 5-10%, which exceeds market expectations. In terms of investment, Xiaomi expects to invest 110-12 billion yuan in car construction and innovation businesses in 2024.
AIoT, Internet: Steady growth, improved profits. We expect the year-on-year growth rate of AIoT business revenue in Q1 to be positive, mainly driven by core categories such as tablets, large appliances, and wearables. Furthermore, we expect some recovery in overseas markets. In terms of gross margin, we expect the Q1 Xiaomi AIoT gross margin to maintain a year-on-year upward trend, driven by improvements in product structure.
On the internet side, we expect MIUI users to continue to grow, driving steady year-on-year growth in internet revenue. Furthermore, we expect the gross margin of the internet business to remain steady.
Reiterate the “buy” rating. We expect the revenue of Xiaomi Group in 2024-2026 to be 3308/3866/431.8 billion yuan, yoy +22%/+17%/+12%, non-GAAP core business net profit of 270/293/31.8 billion yuan, yoy +1%/+9%. Based on Xiaomi's core business (excluding innovative business expenses such as car building) 15x 2024e P/E, automobile 2x 2024e P/S, combined with investment value, the Xiaomi Group's target price was raised to HK$23, reaffirming the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Domestic smartphone competition intensifies, AIoT progress falls short of expectations, overseas market policy risks, Xiaomi's car construction falls short of expectations, and changes in the macroeconomic environment have exceeded expectations.