Incidents:
The company disclosed its 2024 quarterly report. In 24Q1, the company's revenue was 97.4 billion yuan, yoy +10%, net profit due to mother of 1.5 billion yuan, yoy +32%, net profit of non-return to mother 1.1 billion yuan, yoy +10%. The higher non-recurring profit and loss is mainly due to the higher year-on-year increase in income from disposal of non-current assets. The 24Q1 company signed a new contract amount of 367.8 billion yuan, yoy +24%.
Revenue and investment in new energy and integrated smart energy continued to increase, and gross margin continued to improve 24Q1: New energy and comprehensive smart energy revenue of 29.61 billion yuan, yoy +34.5%, accounting for 30.4% of the company's total revenue (vs 23fy revenue accounting for 29.4%); investment of 4.7 billion yuan, yoy +60.4%. Revenue and investment in the new energy and integrated smart energy business continued to grow rapidly. 24Q1 gross profit margin 10.7%, yoy+0.6pct. The cost rate increased slightly, with the cost ratio yoy+0.2pct to 7.3% during the 24Q1 period, and the sales/management/ development/ finance ratio yoy+0.0/-0.1/+0.2/+0.1pct to 0.5%/3.8%/1.7%/1.4%, respectively. Credit impairment losses and increased impact on investment returns (YoY+0.4/+0.3pct to 0.3%/0.2% of revenue, respectively). The net interest rate for 24Q1 was 1.5%, yoy+0.3pct; net interest rate without return to mother was 1.1%, which was basically the same as the previous year.
Contract assets grew rapidly, and the net cash outflow from investment activities increased more. 24Q1 The company's balance ratio was 76.6%, yoy+1.3pct; the interest-bearing debt ratio was 41.4%, yoy+2.0pct. Two gold turnover continues the recent pressure trend. In 24Q1, the number of two gold turnover days was 278 days, yoy+19 days. In 24Q1, operating cash flow increased by 700 million yuan to a net outflow of 162 billion yuan, and investment cash flow increased by 15.2 billion yuan to a net outflow of 20.8 billion yuan over the same period last year.
The number of new engineering construction contracts is growing steadily, and the increase is rapidly increasing simultaneously at home and abroad
For the 24Q1 branch business, the new contract amounts for survey design and consulting/engineering construction/industrial manufacturing were 46/3,152/ 45.2 billion yuan, yoy -4.3%/+10.4%/+582.5%, respectively. Among them, the new energy and integrated smart energy business signed a new contract amount of 140 billion yuan, yoy +1.7%. By region, the amount of new domestic and overseas contracts signed in 24Q1 was 2,759/91.8 billion yuan, yoy +25.0%/19.4%, of which the new contract amount for overseas “Belt and Road” co-construction countries signed yoy +25.1%.
The prospects for reinventing a new energy construction with high quality development are promising. Give “buy” rating companies the “14th Five-Year Plan” target by 2025, double the target, and create a new energy building with high quality development. The prospects for “three new” energy construction centered on new energy, new infrastructure, and new industries are worth looking forward to.
We expect the company's 2024-2026 revenue of 4476/4957/548 billion yuan, yoy +10%/11%/11%, net profit to mother of 89/98/111 billion yuan, yoy +11%/12%, respectively.
The company was given 14 times PE in 2024, with a target price of 2.97 yuan, and a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The execution effect of the company's strategy is lower than expected, electricity and infrastructure investment is weaker than expected, risk of impairment, and policy risk.