The company released its quarterly report for the year 24. In 24Q1, the company's total revenue was 140.3 billion yuan, yoy +5.1%, net profit to mother was 3 billion yuan, yoy +0.8%, net profit of non-return mother was 3 billion yuan, yoy +1.3%. 24Q1 The company signed a new contract amount of 331.1 billion yuan, yoy +2.7%.
24Q1 gross margin declined slightly year-on-year, and impairment losses increased more. 24Q1 gross profit margin was 11.8%, yoy-0.4pct. The cost rate for the 24Q1 period was yoy-1.0pct to 7.1%. Among them, the sales/management/R&D/finance cost rates were YOY+0.0/+0.1/-1.2pct to 0.2%/3.0%/2.3%/1.5%, respectively. 23Q1 had more exchange losses, and the 23Q1 financial expense ratio base was high, and returned to a reasonable level in the current period. The impact of impairment losses increased a lot, and the positive contribution to investment income decreased (yoy+0.5/-0.1pct to 1.4%/0.2% of revenue, respectively), which partially dragged down profitability in a single quarter.
24Q1 net profit margin 2.2%, yoy-0.1pct.
The margin of debt management pressure has increased. The repayment environment in the 24Q1 industry may be weak year over year. The balance ratio at the end of 24Q1 was 78.2%, yoy+0.5pct, the interest-bearing debt ratio was 48.8%, yoy+2.1pct, and the margin of debt control pressure increased. Two gold turnaround days is 184 days, yoy+16 days. In 24Q1, operating cash flow increased by 6 billion yuan to a net outflow of 39 billion yuan, and investment cash flow increased by 800 million yuan to a net outflow of 15.4 billion yuan over the same period last year. We think the overall reflection is that the 24Q1 industry's repayment environment is either year-on-year or weak.
New energy and electricity signings are growing rapidly, and domestic growth is better than overseas
In the 24Q1 business, energy and electricity/water resources and environment/urban construction and infrastructure were newly signed at 1,988/534/69.5 billion yuan respectively, yoy +26.5%/+6.3%/-34.3%, respectively. Energy and electricity continued to grow rapidly. In the subregions, new domestic and overseas signings amounted to 27779/53.2 billion yuan, respectively, or yoy +3.7%/-2.3%, respectively.
The effects of the transformation are gradually showing, maintaining the “buy” rating
We expect the company's 2024-2026 revenue to be 6,806/7,585/854 billion yuan, YOY +12%/11%/13%, respectively, net profit due to mother of 143/161/18.5 billion yuan, YOY +10%/13%/15%, EPS of 0.83/0.94/1.08 yuan/share, respectively, and a 3-year CAGR of 12.6%.
Demand for water conservancy investment and new energy projects is booming, and the company's engineering business growth prospects are good. The scale of the power operation business is growing rapidly, and attention is being paid to the positive contribution of the gravel business. Maintain the company's 24-year target PE 10 times, corresponding to the target price of 8.32 yuan, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Strategy implementation is weaker than expected, electricity and infrastructure investment falls short of expectations, risk of impairment, and new energy business development falls short of expectations