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福莱特(601865):行业逐步走向供需平衡 龙头业绩维持增长

Follett (601865): The industry is gradually moving towards balance between supply and demand, leading performance continues to grow

德邦證券 ·  May 7

Incident: In 2023, the company achieved operating income of 21,524 billion yuan, an increase of 39.21% over the same period last year, achieved net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 2,660 billion yuan, an increase of 30% over the previous year, and realized deducted non-net profit of 2,694 billion yuan, an increase of 29.87% over the previous year.

Benefiting from the release of new production capacity and a high increase in PV installations, the company's revenue reached a new high. According to statistics from the National Energy Administration, China added 216.88GW of PV installed capacity in 2023, an increase of 148.1% over the previous year. Centralized distribution goes hand in hand, and centralized growth momentum is particularly strong. Centralized photovoltaic power plants added 120.59 GW of installed capacity, an increase of 232.2% year on year, while distributed photovoltaic power plants added 96.29 GW of installed capacity, an increase of 88.4% year on year. The number of new PV installations in the global market in 2023 also reached a new high. In 2023, the company benefited from the release of new production capacity and the impact of the booming PV industry, and revenue reached a new high.

The company's production capacity is progressing steadily and is being deployed globally. By the end of 2023, the company's total production capacity was 20,600 tons/day, with a total daily melting capacity of 9,600 tons/day for the Anhui Phase IV project and the Nantong project. It is expected to be ignited and operated this year.

At the same time, the company plans to invest in the construction of photovoltaic glass kilns in Indonesia to meet the demand for photovoltaic glass in different countries and regions. In the future, the company will continue to adhere to the development idea that “we must keep in mind that high-quality development is the hard principle of the new era”, adhere to scientific and technological innovation as the lead, and accelerate the development of new quality productivity. We work hard in the field of photovoltaic new energy sources, seize the new opportunities of the times with more advanced technology, better products, and better services, and contribute more wisdom and strength to the global transformation of new energy sources and sustainable high-quality development.

Supply and demand in the photovoltaic glass market are gradually balancing, and the company is expected to fully benefit. As an essential auxiliary material for modules, after experiencing fierce competition in previous years, profits were pressured on the one hand: due to rising prices on the cost side, such as soda ash and natural gas, the price of glass fluctuated less, so the profit of the photovoltaic glass industry was at the bottom in recent years. On the other hand, government approval is more strict. In addition, factors such as difficult financing and long production expansion cycles have weakened the momentum of photovoltaic glass companies to expand production. Compared with the previous two years, the growth rate of production expansion slowed significantly in 2023, causing supply and demand in the photovoltaic glass market to gradually balance. As a leading photovoltaic glass company, the company is expected to fully benefit in the future.

Investment advice: As a leading photovoltaic glass enterprise, the company has obvious technical advantages, scale advantages and customer resource advantages. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 38.84/48.44/5.924 billion yuan, corresponding PE is 16X/13X/11X.

Risk warning: Industry competition increases risk, raw material price fluctuation risk, PV industry demand falls short of expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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