2023 年/2024Q1 公司分别实现营业收入331.26/162.55 亿元，分别同比增长10.04%/8.03%，2023 年/2024Q1 公司分别实现归母净利润100.16/60.55亿元，分别同比增长6.80%/5.02%。2023Q4+2024Q1 实现收入190.98 亿元，同比增长2.30%，实现归母净利润58.68 亿元，同比下降3.37%。2024Q1 合同负债58.15 亿元，同比下降16.62%，环比减少52.89 亿元，（收入+Δ合同负债）109.65 亿元，同比增长32.44%。2024Q1 销售收现129.06 亿元，同比增长25.09%。Incidents:
The company released its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report. In 2023/2024Q1, the company achieved operating income of 331.26/16.255 billion yuan, an increase of 10.04%/8.03% year-on-year respectively; the 2023/2024Q1 company achieved net profit of 100.16/6.055 billion yuan, respectively, up 6.80%/5.02% year-on-year.
Revenue and profit are basically in line with expectations
In 2023/2024Q1, the company achieved operating income of 331.26/16.255 billion yuan, respectively, up 10.04%/8.03% year on year, and 2023/2024 Q1 achieved net profit to mother of 100.16/6.055 billion yuan respectively, up 6.80%/5.02% year on year, respectively. 2023Q4+2024Q1 achieved revenue of 19.098 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.30%, and realized net profit to mother of 5.868 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.37%. 2024Q1 contract debt was 5.815 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.62%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.289 billion yuan, and (revenue+delta contract liabilities) of 10.965 billion yuan, an increase of 32.44% year-on-year. 2024Q1's sales revenue was $12.906 billion, up 25.09% year over year.
The short-term growth rate of high-end alcohol decelerated, and the growth rate outside the province was higher than within the province
In 2023, the company's high-end liquor/regular wine achieved revenue of 285.39/3,950 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 8.82%/20.70% year-on-year respectively. By region, inside/ outside the province achieved revenue of 143.93/18.096 billion yuan respectively in 2023, up 8.05%/11.85% year on year. The number of company dealers reached 8,789 in 2023, an increase of 551 over the previous year, of which -17/+568 in the province/outside the province respectively reached 2960/5829.
Sales expenses have increased, and profitability is under pressure in the short term
The gross profit margin in 2023 was 75.25%, up 0.65pct year on year, the net profit margin to mother was 30.24%, down 0.91 pct year on year, and sales expenses rate/ management fee rate/ tax and surcharges were 16.26%/5.33%/15.91%, respectively, +2.38/ -1.10/1.33pct, respectively. The 2024Q1 gross profit margin was 76.03%, down 0.57pct year on year, the net profit margin to mother was 37.25%, down 1.07pct year on year, and sales expenses rate/ administrative expenses rate/ taxes and surcharges were 8.52%/2.85%/16.01%, respectively, +1.11/-0.89/+0.32pct, respectively.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 360.76/387.61 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.91%/7.44%/6.46%, net profit to mother of 105.88/116.08/12.629 billion yuan, respectively, year-on-year growth rates of 5.71%/9.63%/8.80%, EPS 7.03/7.71/8.38 yuan/share, respectively, and a 3-year CAGR of 8.03%. Although the company's short-term growth rate was slightly pressured by industry sentiment, its performance stability and dividend rate were still high. The company was given 16 times PE in 2024, with a target price of 112.48 yuan, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Liquor consumption power declines; industry competition intensifies; market position in the province is damaged
