With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 40.7x Eastroc Beverage(Group) Co., Ltd. (SHSE:605499) may be sending bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in China have P/E ratios under 32x and even P/E's lower than 20x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.
Eastroc Beverage(Group) certainly has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing earnings more than most other companies. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to persist, which has raised the P/E. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
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Does Growth Match The High P/E?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the market for P/E ratios like Eastroc Beverage(Group)'s to be considered reasonable.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 38% gain to the company's bottom line. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 99% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 20% each year over the next three years. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 25% each year growth forecast for the broader market.
With this information, we find it concerning that Eastroc Beverage(Group) is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.
The Final Word
It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
Our examination of Eastroc Beverage(Group)'s analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.
And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Eastroc Beverage(Group) you should know about.
You might be able to find a better investment than Eastroc Beverage(Group). If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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