Incident 1: The company recently released its 2023 annual report, achieving operating income of 118.681 billion yuan, achieving net profit of 7.440 billion yuan and +153.20%, achieving deducted non-return to mother of 6.904 billion yuan, same +152.09%; in the fourth quarter of 2023, it achieved operating income of 33.585 billion yuan, same +12.31%, and realized net profit of 1.086 billion yuan, same as -13.81%, the same as -13.81%, and the same- 24.13%, ring -65.86%.
Incident 2: The company recently released its 2024 quarterly report, achieving operating income of 23.084 billion yuan, -0.30%, and 31.27%, achieving net profit attributable to mother of 1,176 billion yuan, same -29.09%, ring +8.24%, and realized deduction of 191 million yuan without return to mother, -84.34% and -77.68%.
TopCon technology continues to lead, and component shipments rank first in the industry. In the first quarter of 2023 and 2024, the company achieved 78.52 GW of module shipments (48.41 GW of N type shipments) and 19.99 GW. The company's TopCon technology continued to lead the industry, and N-type module shipments led the industry. According to InfoLinkConsulting's data, the company ranked first in the industry in module shipments in 2023.
Type N continues to lead production and research, and the patent layout is perfect. By the end of 2023, the company's production capacity of silicon wafers, batteries and modules reached 85GW, 90GW and 110GW. The company's N-type production capacity has exceeded 70GW, and N-type production and research continues to lead. It is expected that by the end of 2024, the production capacity of silicon wafers, cells, and modules will reach 120GW, 110GW, and 130GW. During the 2023 annual report reporting period, the company's R&D efficiency continued to reach new highs. The conversion efficiency of 182N TopCon batteries reached 26.89%, and N-type TopCon large-area photovoltaic modules passed through T? V SÜD certified that the highest conversion efficiency reached 24.76%, and the conversion efficiency of perovskite laminated batteries based on N-type TopCon reached 32.33%. By the end of 2023, the company had applied for more than 3,800 patents and obtained more than 3,500 authorized patents, covering high-efficiency battery and module technologies such as Perc, TopCon, and BC.
Overseas integrated production capacity is leading, and emerging markets are growing rapidly. The company has the largest integrated overseas production capacity of over 12 GW in the industry and a complete supply chain traceability system. At the same time, the company actively responds to changes in trade policies in overseas markets, focuses on promoting carbon footprint management, supply chain traceability, ESG, etc., and has made positive progress, laying a solid foundation for the company to stabilize its market share in Europe and the US. The company invested in the construction of a 2GW component factory in the US to help ship to the US market. The company seizes opportunities in emerging markets such as the Middle East, Latin America and Southeast Asia, and actively explores new markets. It has signed several large orders for GW grade N components in the Middle East market, with a market share of 40-50%, and the company's overseas business is expected to maintain a high growth rate.
Promote the “photovoltaic+energy storage” business layout and create BIPV products. Based on the photovoltaic business, the company actively laid out the field of energy storage. The company's 4 GWh energy storage system production line was successfully put into operation during the reporting period.
Blue Whale's 5MWH large-scale energy storage system SunTeraG2 and 314Ah self-developed batteries were recently released, marking the further implementation of the energy storage business on the product side. The company actively invests in product innovation and continues to develop in the field of photovoltaic building integration (BIPV) to provide customers in various industries such as medical care, education, food, etc. In 2023, the company's total BIPV shipments have exceeded 100 megawatts. We believe that on the basis of a solid brand channel in the PV module business, the company is actively developing new products and businesses, and is expected to fully benefit from the rapid growth of the energy storage industry and the BIPV industry.
Investment advice: The company TopCon leads the industry in production and research, ranks first in the industry in module shipments, maintains leading market share in the core PV market at home and abroad, and leads the industry in developing emerging markets. The company actively promotes the PV+energy storage business layout, and will go through the cycle and fully benefit from the arrival of affordable optical storage. We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be RMB 10.269 billion, RMB 11.623 billion, and RMB 143.39 billion; net profit to mother will be RMB 4.679 billion, RMB 6.180 billion, and RMB 7.972 billion respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.47 yuan, 0.62 yuan, and 0.80 yuan respectively. This is the first coverage, giving it a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: raw material price fluctuation risk, downstream demand risk, increased market competition risk, policy risk.