净利率小幅提升，费用率管控良好。2023 年，公司实现营收为403.01 亿元，同比增长7.01%；归母净利润为8.61 亿元，同比增长64.41%。24Q1公司实现营收84.6 亿元，同比增长6.45%；归母净利润为2.7 亿元，同比增长15.67%。子公司航空工业陕飞实现营收108.88 亿元，同比下降19.51%。盈利能力方面，23 年公司毛利率为6.87%，同比-0.18pct，归母净利率为2.14%，同比+0.75pct，净利率水平提升主要系公司聚焦主业，交付航空产品数量增长，同时开展降本增效等工作。费用端，销售/ 管理/ 研发费用率分别为1.18/2.26/0.60%, 同比+0.02/-0.12/-0.22pct，费用端整体管控良好。Incidents:
The company released its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report. In 2023, it achieved revenue of 40.301 billion yuan, up 7.01% year on year; realized net profit of 861 million yuan, up 64.41% year on year; achieved revenue of 8.46 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2024, up 6.45% year on year; and net profit to mother was 270 million yuan, up 15.67% year on year.
Comment:
The net interest rate increased slightly, and the expense ratio was well controlled. In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 40.301 billion yuan, up 7.01% year on year; net profit to mother was 861 million yuan, up 64.41% year on year. 24Q1 achieved revenue of 8.46 billion yuan, an increase of 6.45% year on year; net profit to mother was 270 million yuan, up 15.67% year on year. The subsidiary Aviation Industry Shaanxi Fei achieved revenue of 10.888 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.51%. In terms of profitability, the company's gross margin in '23 was 6.87%, -0.18pct year on year, and the net interest rate to mother was 2.14%, +0.75pct year on year. The increase in net margin level was mainly due to the company focusing on its main business, increasing the number of aviation products delivered, and carrying out work such as reducing costs and increasing efficiency. On the cost side, sales/management/ R&D expense ratios were 1.18/2.26/ 0.60% respectively, +0.02/-0.12/-0.22pct compared to the previous year. Overall cost side control was good.
Various delivery tasks were successfully completed, and large aircraft contributed new momentum to development. In 2023, the company successfully delivered various orders: 1) military aircraft products: production and delivery tasks for various types of military aircraft were completed on schedule; 2) Civilian aircraft products: 34 units of ARJ21 parts and C919 components were delivered, and 4 parts of Xinzhou were delivered; 3) International cooperation projects: The first ATR42 short take-off and landing project and the Airbus A320 series aircraft project were delivered on time. At the same time, the company clearly proposed in its business plan to organize and carry out production capacity construction for the C919 production line. In April 2024, Air China announced that it had signed an order with COMAC for 100 C919 aircraft. The company is an important supplier of C919 airframe structures and is expected to contribute new momentum.
The volume of related transactions was +21.72% year-on-year in 2014, and the performance is expected to maintain steady growth. The company expects the total amount of related transactions in '24 to be $28.160 billion, up 21.72% from the projected value for '23. Of these, it is expected to achieve related sales of $746 million, an increase of 10.28% over the forecast value for '23; it is expected to achieve a related procurement amount of 24.785 billion yuan, an increase of 22.09% over the forecast value for '23.
Investment advice: Based on the company's latest performance, we adjusted the profit forecast. The company's revenue for 2024 to 2026 is estimated to be 454.89/518.02/589.99 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit to mother of 11.69/14.94/1,811 billion yuan, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: declining demand, declining profitability, performance and valuation judgments falling short of expectations
