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亚玛顿(002623):产能陆续释放 坚持差异化战略

Amaton (002623): Production capacity released one after another and adheres to the strategy of differentiation

天風證券 ·  May 7

occurrences

In '23, the company achieved net profit of 36.3/80 billion yuan, +14.5%/-0.1% year-on-year. The release of additional production capacity led to rapid growth in the company's photovoltaic glass production and sales; 24Q1 revenue/net profit to mother was 889/10 million yuan, +9.5%/-22.7% year-on-year. The impairment accrued 47.85 million, affecting net profit not attributable to the mother after deduction.

Sales of photovoltaic glass increased with the release of production capacity, and prices declined

By business, the company's revenue for solar glass/solar modules/electricity sales/electronic glass and other glass products in '23 was 32.8/1.8/0.5/0.9 billion yuan, +13.9%/+43.5%/-8.0%/+10.8% compared with the same period last year.

Solar glass sales volume was 188 million square meters, +33% year-on-year, mainly due to the release of processing capacity in Anhui and Benxi, which led to a significant increase in the company's solar glass production, sales and revenue. The unit price was 17.46 yuan/square meter, down 14% year on year.

On the gross margin side, the company's overall gross profit margin in '23 was 7.6%, -0.5pct year on year; 23Q4/24Q1 gross profit margin was 6.8%/6.2%, declining from quarter to quarter, mainly due to falling solar glass prices. In addition, the gross margin of solar modules/electronic glass and other glass products improved markedly, +5.4/+16.1pct year-on-year, respectively, and the gross margin of modules was corrected year-on-year.

Expense control is good, and net interest rate rebounded in Q1

In terms of expenses, the cost rate for the 23-year period of the company was 5.5%, of which the sales/management/R&D/finance ratio was 0.2%/1.7%/3.2%/0.4%, -0.004/-0.23/-0.05/-0.17pct year on year.

Net profit margin for 23 was 2.3%, -0.3 pct year over year. On a quarterly basis, the company's net interest rate for 23Q1-24Q1 was 2%, 2.7%, 4.7%, -0.09%, and 1.72%.

Restart mergers, acquisitions and restructuring to improve the company's industrial chain layout

In March '24, the company once again announced a fixed increase plan. It plans to purchase 100% of the shares in Fengyang Silicon Valley held by Shanghai Lingda and Yancheng Daling through the issuance of shares and cash payment, and raise supporting capital. If this merger and acquisition project is successfully implemented, the company will achieve an industrial layout with vertical integration of photovoltaic glass production, further consolidate the company's leading position in the industry, and effectively enhance the competitive advantage of the market and technology, thereby improving the company's overall profit level.

Profit forecasts and investment advice

The company set up a holding subsidiary in Shijiazhuang, Hebei to build a 1.6mm deep processing production line. The photovoltaic glass production capacity is expected to reach 230 million square meters per year in 24 years. According to the latest PV glass price situation, we lowered our profit forecast. The company's net profit for 24-26 is estimated to be 1.6/2.1/220 million yuan (previous value: 180/240 million yuan in 24-25 years), corresponding to PE 24/19/18 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.

Risk warning: PV installations fall short of expectations, raw material price increases beyond expectations, and uncertainty about the contract being a framework agreement.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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