Incidents:
The company released its 2024 quarterly report. In the first quarter of 2024, it achieved revenue of 1,317 million yuan, +5.22% year on year, net profit to mother of 351 million yuan, +4.95% year on year, and realized net profit after deduction of 351 million yuan, or +7.76% year over year.
Delivery of new aviation materials is growing steadily. By product, the aviation new materials business achieved revenue of 1,305 million yuan in Q1, up 5.05% year on year, and achieved net profit of 365 million yuan, up 4.95% year on year, mainly due to increased delivery of aeronautical composite products; the equipment business achieved operating income of 3.6811 million yuan, down 46.88% year on year, and realized net profit to mother of 8.755 million yuan, an increase of 520,800 yuan year on year, mainly due to a decrease in revenue scale. In terms of profitability, 24Q1's overall gross margin was 41.21%, an increase of 0.71 pct over the same period last year, and profitability increased steadily. On the cost side, the 24Q1 sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratio was 0.67/6.52/2.52/ -0.71%, +0.09/-0.09/-0.17pct year-on-year.
Strengthen scientific and technological innovation and continuously enhance the core competitiveness of enterprises. In 2023, the company will increase investment in innovation and technology to further enhance its ability to transform scientific and technological achievements. Continue to carry out research on key technologies for next-generation aeronautical composites and structural molding; complete the C929 front-fuselage wall panel trial production verification (PPV) wall panel development, submit a PPV analysis report to COMAC and pass its review; complete the development and delivery of key components for commercial aero engine composites; continue to promote research on the stability and process applicability of domestic high-performance carbon fiber pre-impregnation; break through key technologies for the preparation of domestic high-performance carbon fiber pre-impregnation, and complete the first delivery of the new carbon fiber pre-impregnation; “Sound-absorbing honeycomb composites and their application in commercial aviation engines” project Break through automatic implantation, curved surface molding, and seamless splicing technology.
The company's annual operating target for 2024 is expected to achieve operating income of 5 billion yuan and total profit of 1,282 billion yuan, of which the new aviation materials business strives to achieve revenue of 4.912 billion yuan and total profit of 1,370 billion yuan.
Investment advice: We slightly lowered our profit forecast for the company due to factors such as the industry environment and order delivery delays. We forecast the company's revenue for 24-26 to be $51.96/58.44/6.575 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit to mother of 11.31/13.18/1,508 billion yuan, respectively. Considering the company's leading position in the domestic aviation composite materials field, we maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Order fluctuations, industry policy changes, performance and valuation judgments fall short of expectations.