Event: The company released its annual report for 2023 and the first quarter of 2024. In 2023, the company achieved operating income of 1,648 billion yuan, a year-on-year ratio of -42.18%; realized net profit of 128 million yuan, or -75.03% year-on-year; net profit of 107 million yuan after deduction, -79.07% year-on-year. In 2024, Q1 achieved operating income of 296 million yuan, -34.50% YoY, -1.10% YoY; realized net profit of 16.54 million yuan, -64.50% YoY, +125.20%. Since 2023, the impact of geopolitical conflict and inflation has continued. Demand in the overseas terminal consumer market has slowly picked up, high inventory digestion has fallen short of expectations, and the company's performance has been adversely affected accordingly.
The gross margin of the company's core product, electric scooter motors, remained relatively stable for 23 years. The company's comprehensive gross margin and net margin in '23 were 28.86%/7.76%, respectively, -2.36pct/-10.21pct year-on-year. The company's gross margin and net margin in Q1 in '24 were 28.55%/5.59%, respectively, +1.86pct/-4.72pct, and -7.20pct/3.13pct month-on-month. The company's core product, the electric scooter motor, had a gross margin of 48.34% in 23 years, -0.46pct year on year, and remained relatively stable.
Since 23 years, high inventory in the terminal market and weak consumption have led to a decline in the company's shipments. Looking at the long term, the electric scooter industry is still growing. In 2023, after the sales boom of the past two years, compounded by the impact of high inventories, extreme weather, geopolitics, and inflation in the industry, demand for electric scooters in Europe slowed overall.
Major countries, Germany and the Netherlands, sold 210/453,000 electric scooters, -4.55%/-6.79% year-on-year. In the short term, inventory digestion and consumption recovery will take time; however, in the long run, as low carbon or even zero carbon emissions advance, more countries support the electrification of travel in terms of increasing subsidies and infrastructure investment, and the electric scooter market can still be expected in the future. The US electric bicycle market started late, the penetration rate of electric bicycles is low, and there is great potential for future development.
Investment advice: Considering that demand in the overseas terminal consumer market is slowly picking up and the digestion rate of high inventory falls short of expectations, we lowered the company's profit expectations. The company's net profit for 24-26 is estimated at 1.53/1.92/256 million yuan, +19.4%/+25.5%/+33.7% year-on-year, corresponding PE of 40.4/32.2/24.1, giving it an “increase in wealth” rating.
Risk warning: Overseas e-bike recovery falls short of expectations; market competition increases risk; trade risk.