Performance: The 24Q1 company achieved operating income of 1,076 million yuan (+20.41%); realized net profit to mother of 221 million yuan (+21.58% year over year).
The product structure continues to improve, with products over 300 yuan accounting for 6.34% of revenue.
The revenue of 24Q1 products above 300 yuan/100-300 yuan/100 yuan or less was 1.91/5.51/324 million yuan respectively (+86.48%/+24.13%/-4.2%); the proportion changed by +6.34/+1.50/-7.84 pct year-on-year to 17.93%/51.70%/30.38%, respectively. Benefiting from the continuation of the trend of consumption upgrades in the province+ the company actively increased the share of Soft H6/Gold Emblem in 18/28 (deeply nurturing consumers+increasing brand height in 28 years), it is expected that the revenue share of products above 100 yuan may continue to increase.
The province is deepening cultivation and growth, and breakthroughs are being accelerated outside the province, and dealers are “rising rapidly in quantity and quality.”
1. Looking at regions: In 24Q1, revenue within the province/outside the province was 848/218 million yuan respectively (+22.55%/+13.23%), accounting for a year-on-year change of 1.31/-1.31 percentage points to 79.59%/20.41%, respectively. ① Maintaining high growth in the province: the Gansu market has a liquor capacity of 8 billion yuan. The company aims to increase its market share in recent years, with the Hexi region already having a good foundation; ② Outside the province: the growth rate is slightly lower than that of the province or mainly due to heavy competition. In the future, integrated construction in the Northwest China (Gan/Qing/Xin, Shaanxi/Ningxia) will continue to advance, and the East/North China market focuses on resources to create a regional model.
2. By channel, the 24Q1 company's distribution/direct sales (including group purchases) /internet sales revenue was 10.06/0.27/0.32 billion yuan (+19.35%/+31.33%/+57.72%); the number of 24Q1 company's dealers increased by 99 to 892 year-on-year, and the average dealer size changed 7.15% year over year to 1.195 million yuan/home.
Profitability increased slightly, and advance receipt & cash flow performance was excellent.
The 24Q1 gross margin/net margin of the company changed 0.43/ 0.11 percentage points from the same period last year to 65.40%/20.39%. ① Expenses: In 24Q1, the company's sales expense rate/management expense rate/financial expense ratio changed +0.15/+0.18/-0.30 percentage points year-on-year to 17.98%/8.73%/-0.61%. The company is still in a period of accelerated expansion expenses, and the sales expense ratio continues to grow. ② Advance receipt: 24Q1 contract liabilities were +2.04/+56 million yuan to 631 million yuan; ③ Cash flow: 24Q1 The company's operating cash flow was 343 million yuan (+46.60% year over year).
Profit forecast: The company is in the stage of cultivating high-priced products and deepening the market to drive overall structural upgrading (increasing cost investment). We believe that the probability of achieving the company's operating income/net profit target of 30.400 million yuan in 24 is high, and the goal of “deepening the Northwest” is likely to be achieved at an accelerated pace. The company's revenue for 24-26 is estimated to be 31.3/37.6/4.57 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to a growth rate of 22.8%/20.1%/21.5%, and net profit to mother of 4.2/53/ 73 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding growth rates of 27.3%/26.5%/38.1%, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: macroeconomic recovery falls short of expectations; competition in the liquor industry intensifies; sales fall short of expectations; industry competition intensifies