The company, which has been deeply involved in the outdoors for more than 20 years, is a leading domestic outdoor retail company that has been deeply involved in the outdoor industry for more than 20 years. It was listed on the small and medium board in 2015. Since 2019, it has lost money for four consecutive years due to the slump in the outdoor retail market and restrictions on sales rights of Archaeopteryx. It began to transform from outdoor channel retail to outdoor brand operation in 2021. The transformation began to bear fruit in 2023, turning losses into profits. In the context of the second rise of the domestic outdoor industry and the continuation of the trend of branding and high-end technology, its own brand X-BIONIC is expected to guarantee high performance growth through omni-channel penetration such as stores, distribution, and Douyin, and break the growth ceiling through various methods such as KOL cultivation and cooperation with top business schools. Furthermore, the joint venture brand Mountain Climber is in line with mountain trends. The only brand CRISPI focuses on comfort and zero grinding to expand urban functional categories, and Houdini focuses on fashion and environmental protection and opens independent stores, all of which are expected to contribute to increased performance. In 2024-2026, we expect the company's revenue to be 11.1/14.2/1.75 billion yuan, net profit to mother of 0.6/0.9/160 million yuan. The current stock price corresponds to PE of 31.1/19.3/11.4 times, covered for the first time, giving it a “buy” rating.
X-BIONIC targets Archaeopteryx, good genes+good operation helps sports black technology brands continue to grow at a high rate. The successful experience of Archaeopteryx can be summed up as good genes+good luck management. X-BIONIC has its own high-end outdoor “good genes” and makes every effort to promote branded operation in terms of products, channels, and marketing. In terms of brand genetics, X-BIONIC has sweat wicking and temperature control technology, ski scene support, and a deep historical heritage. In terms of brand operation, the product side cooperated with top fabric vendors to develop mid/outer products, accounting for 60% of the revenue; the channel side opened 10 single-brand stores in top business districts such as SKP and Vientiane City, opened 12 ski stores in large-scale ski resorts, developed two dealers in Xi'an and Jinzhou and continued contact with other dealers; the marketing side gradually broke through KOL farming, celebrity endorsements, and top business school cooperation. 2023H1 In the future, X-BIONIC is expected to continue to grow rapidly as the number of stores grows, distribution channels expand, and Douyin channels expand.
Mountain Climber + CRISPi + Houdini are working together to provide new growth points for top outdoor brands in the segment. Mountain Climber, CRISPI, and Houdini, which the company's main brands are all top outdoor brands, and are expected to contribute new growth points.
Mountain Climber is a classic Swedish mountain outdoor brand, which is expected to continue to expand sales scale through mountain trends; CRISPI is an Italian handmade and ingenious brand, benefiting from the continuous opening of brand zones; Houdini is a Nordic outdoor aesthetic brand, benefiting from the continuous development of single-brand stores, Sanfu integrated stores and distribution channels.
Risk warning: risk of macroeconomic fluctuations; risk of brand operation falling short of expectations; risk of falling inventory prices.