Key points of investment:
Announcement: 2023 revenue of 472 million yuan, +7.06% year on year, net profit to mother of 30.1535 million yuan, 42.67% year on year, average ROE of 2.19%; revenue for the first quarter of 2024 was 94.6749 million yuan, +18.26% year over year, net profit to mother - 13.2639 million yuan, -193.9% year on year. The annual report results were in line with expectations, and 1Q2024 profit fell short of expectations, mainly due to a reduction in quarterly gross margin to 22%.
MaxiSheng's revenue structure in 2023: LED products were 260 million yuan, -18% year over year; wireless charging product revenue was 201,000 yuan, +64% year over year; signal chain chips were 111 million yuan, mass production began.
The first growth curve LED lighting driver series product is one of the few manufacturers in the industry that has a full range of intelligent driver chips. Maxinsheng's LED driver chip products are leading the key technology for intelligent dimming, and it has become one of the main LED lighting driver chip suppliers in emerging markets such as India. According to the company's prospectus, the localization rate of LED chips in the general light source category is over 80%. The main manufacturers include Jingfeng Mingyuan, Biywei, Silanwei, and Mingwei Electronics; the commercial high-power lighting field is dominated by foreign manufacturers such as ST, NXP, Infineon, and Onsemi, and the localization rate is low; the smart lighting field has been around for a short time, and the main manufacturers are Jingfeng Mingyuan, Dialog, Silijie, Mingwei Electronics, etc.
Second growth curve wireless charging series product. The company launched the world's first 30W/50W/100W wireless charging RTX chip. The key performance indicators of wireless fast charging power management chips are internationally advanced, and can meet different terminal applications such as small to medium power, high power, and vehicle specifications. According to WPC, etc., the global shipment volume of wireless charging transmitter devices in 2021 was 200 million units and 520 million units at the receiving end, which is expected to increase to 420 million units and 1.18 billion units in 2025, respectively. In 2020-2022, Maxim's wireless charging chip shipments increased from 1.29 million to 17.21 million, with a market share of 1.63% in 2021.
Third growth curve signal chain optical sensor chips, optical proximity detection sensors, ultra-sensitive ambient light and proximity detection sensors, and polarized light crown sensors, are in the early stages of domestic replacement. The MT3305, an ALS, PS, and LED three-in-one chip can be used in consumer electronics, the Internet of Things, and industry; the polarized light crown sensor is the industry's first and currently the only sensor that can integrate rotation detection and key detection at the same time. The rotation angle recognition accuracy can reach 0.1 degrees, and the accuracy is increased by more than 5 times. BlueWeave Consulting estimates the global photoelectric sensor market will reach $2.26 billion by 2026.
Since 2023, the company's signal chain optical sensing product design has entered many mobile phone customers and entered mass production and delivery. The announcement shows 1Q24 sales revenue of 10.2762 million yuan.
The profit forecast was lowered and the “buy” rating was maintained. The 2024-25 net profit forecast was lowered to 88/109 million yuan (the original value was 100/170 million yuan), and the 2026 net profit forecast was added to the 2026 net profit forecast of 159 million yuan. In 2024, PE 37.3X is comparable to the average PE 47.0X of companies (Jingfeng Mingyuan, Xinpeng, Canrui Technology) in 2024, with an increase of 26%. We are optimistic about the company's potential for new wireless charging and optical sensing chips, and maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The semiconductor boom cycle is declining, demand for new products falls short of expectations, and stock price changes due to shareholders' holdings reduction.