Investors in Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. (NYSE:BNL) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.9% to close at US$15.23 following the release of its quarterly results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$105m were what the analysts expected, Broadstone Net Lease surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.35 per share, an impressive 103% above what was forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Broadstone Net Lease after the latest results.
Following last week's earnings report, Broadstone Net Lease's six analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$427.3m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dive 28% to US$0.69 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$430.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.70 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$17.83, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Broadstone Net Lease, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$22.00 and the most bearish at US$14.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.6% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 11% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.0% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Broadstone Net Lease is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Broadstone Net Lease's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$17.83, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Broadstone Net Lease. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Broadstone Net Lease going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 4 warning signs for Broadstone Net Lease you should be aware of, and 2 of them are concerning.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.