With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 19.7x RLI Corp. (NYSE:RLI) may be sending bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 17x and even P/E's lower than 9x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.

With earnings that are retreating more than the market's of late, RLI has been very sluggish. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will turn things around completely and accelerate past most others in the market. If not, then existing shareholders may be very nervous about the viability of the share price.

Is There Enough Growth For RLI?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, RLI would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 48%. That put a dampener on the good run it was having over the longer-term as its three-year EPS growth is still a noteworthy 13% in total. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the earnings growth recently has been mostly respectable for the company.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the seven analysts covering the company suggest earnings growth is heading into negative territory, declining 1.8% each year over the next three years. With the market predicted to deliver 10% growth each year, that's a disappointing outcome.

In light of this, it's alarming that RLI's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company reject the analyst cohort's pessimism and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as these declining earnings are likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What We Can Learn From RLI's P/E?

We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of RLI's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. When we see a poor outlook with earnings heading backwards, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for RLI (1 can't be ignored) you should be aware of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.