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中国核电(601985):核电装机持续推进 新能源业绩高速增长

China Nuclear Power (601985): Nuclear power installations continue to drive rapid growth in new energy performance

中信建投證券 ·  May 6

Core views

In 2023, the company achieved operating income of 74.957 billion yuan, an increase of 5.15% over the previous year, and realized net profit of 10.624 billion yuan, an increase of 17.91% over the previous year. The increase in the company's business performance in 2023 is mainly due to an increase in power generation due to the year-on-year increase in the installed scale of new energy sources. In Q1 2024, the company achieved operating income of 17.988 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.53%, and achieved net profit to mother of 3,059 billion yuan, an increase of 1.18% over the previous year. The increase in net profit to mother was mainly due to an increase in the company's power generation revenue, a reduction in costs and expenses, and a year-on-year increase in net profit. As of March 31, 2024, the company controlled an installed capacity of 45.09 million kilowatts, of which the installed capacity of nuclear power, wind power and photovoltaics was 2375, 733 and 1.41 million kilowatts, respectively; the installed capacity of the company was 268.946 million kilowatts, of which 1,263, 334 and 10.92 million kilowatts of nuclear power, wind power and photovoltaics were under construction, respectively. The company is developing the three major industries in an integrated manner. Nuclear power installations are progressing in an orderly manner, the scale of new energy installations is growing rapidly, and strategic emerging industries have entered a new stage. We expect the company's business performance to continue to grow.

occurrences

The company released its 2023 annual report and quarterly report for the first quarter of 2024. In 2023, the company achieved operating income of 74.957 billion yuan, an increase of 5.15%; net profit attributable to mother of 10.624 billion yuan, an increase of 17.91% year on year; net profit after deducting non-return on mother was 10.396 billion yuan, up 15.06% year on year. The weighted average return on net assets was 12.19%, an increase of 0.85 percentage points over the same period last year; basic earnings per share were 0.55 yuan/share, up 18.38% year on year. In the first quarter of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 17.988 billion yuan, an increase of 0.53% over the previous year, and realized net profit of 3,059 billion yuan, an increase of 1.18% over the previous year.

Brief review

New energy led to a steady increase in performance, and a year-on-year improvement in financial expense ratios

In 2023, the company achieved operating income of 74.957 billion yuan, an increase of 5.15% over the previous year, and realized net profit of 10.624 billion yuan, an increase of 17.91% over the previous year. The increase in the company's business performance in 2023 is mainly due to an increase in power generation due to the year-on-year increase in the installed scale of new energy sources. In Q1 2024, the company achieved operating income of 17.988 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.53%, and achieved net profit to mother of 3,059 billion yuan, an increase of 1.18% over the previous year. The increase in net profit to mother was mainly due to an increase in the company's power generation revenue, a reduction in costs and expenses, and a year-on-year increase in net profit. By business, the company's revenue for nuclear power, photovoltaics and wind power in 2023 was 634.57, 58.82 and 3,927 billion yuan, respectively, up 0.08%, 38.92% and 70.37% year-on-year. Among them, the company's new energy revenue increased significantly year on year, mainly due to the year-on-year increase in new energy feed-in capacity. In terms of the period expense ratio, the company's 2023 sales expense ratio, management expense ratio, R&D expense ratio, and financial expense ratio were 0.15%, 5.11%, 1.85%, and 9.74%, respectively; year-on-year changes were +0.04, -1.37, -0.11, and -1.68 percentage points. In terms of cash flow, in 2023, net cash flows from the company's operating activities, investment activities and financing activities were 431.26 billion yuan, -717.12 billion yuan, and 22.332 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -7.65%, +35.28%, and +136.67%. In 2023, the company plans to pay a cash dividend of 0.195 yuan (tax included) per share, accounting for 35.20% of the company's net profit to mother.

New energy installations are growing rapidly, and nuclear power development is progressing in an orderly manner

As of March 31, 2024, the company controlled an installed capacity of 45.906 million kilowatts, of which the installed capacity of nuclear power, wind power and photovoltaics was 2375.00, 733.26 and 140.80 million kilowatts, respectively; the installed capacity of the company was 268.946 million kilowatts, of which the installed capacity of nuclear power, wind power and photovoltaics were 1263.20, 333.98, and 10,922,800 kilowatts, respectively. In terms of feed-in power, the company completed 209.858 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity generation in 2023, an increase of 5.30% over the previous year; completed feed-in power generation of 197,449 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 5.57% over the previous year. Among them, the company's nuclear power, wind power and photovoltaic power generation capacity was 1864.77, 10.9.04, and 12.478 billion kilowatt-hours, respectively, up 0.72%, 66.78% and 66.14% year-on-year. The company's new energy generation capacity increased year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in the scale of the company's new energy investment. Along with the commissioning of the company's new energy installations under construction, the company's feed-in power generation is expected to continue to grow. In terms of electricity prices, the total electricity volume for the full year of 2023 was 0.4193 yuan/kilowatt-hour, a year-on-year decrease of 0.78%. In the context of China's active, safe and orderly development of nuclear power, the number of approved nuclear power projects is expected to continue to increase, and the installed capacity is expected to grow steadily.

The three major industries have gone hand in hand, and the company's performance has grown steadily, maintaining the overall development of the three major industries of nuclear power, new energy power generation, and agile (strategic emerging industries) by “buy” rating companies. In terms of nuclear power business, we are actively developing nuclear power projects. The company approved four units of Xudabao 1/2 and Zhejiang Jinqimen 1/2; in terms of new energy business, the annual installed capacity of nearly 6 million kilowatts of new energy was added, and the first overseas project, 99MW wind power in Pakistan and the 150MW wind power project in Kazakhstan successfully signed equity transfer agreements; in terms of new agile industries, perovskite solar cell research has achieved stage results. The isotope special team and energy storage special team are progressing rapidly. We expect the company's net profit from 2024 to 2026 to be 11.165 billion yuan, 12.220 billion yuan, and 12.688 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.59 yuan/share, 0.65 yuan/share, and 0.67 yuan/share, respectively.

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