费用上升导致公司净利润下滑。公司2024 年一季度营业总成本率为84.2%，较去年同期+3.7pct。公司营业成本、销售费用、管理费用同比分别+0.7%、+27.8%、+14.8%，占营收比重较同期分别-0.1pct、+3.7pct、+1.2pct。销售费用增加的主要原因是公司加大营销推广力度，使得销售人员薪酬及广告宣传费增加。[Event] Tonghuashun announced 2024Q1 results: in the first quarter of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 619 million yuan, +1.5% year over year; net profit to mother was 104 million yuan, -15% year over year; corresponding EPS of 0.19 yuan, corresponding to ROE 1.41%.
Market activity remained high, and the company's revenue showed stability. The stock market fluctuated greatly in the first quarter of 2024, and overall market activity remained high. The average daily share base transaction volume of the entire market was 102 billion yuan, +4.8% year over year, and the balance of the two loans was 1537.9 billion yuan, -4.28% year over year, -6.84% compared to the beginning of the year. In this context, the company's revenue increased slightly year-on-year, showing the stability of the company's business.
R&D investment continues to grow, and AI research and development has achieved results. In the first quarter of 2024, the company's R&D expenses reached 30.2 billion yuan, +7.6% over the same period last year. The company continued to increase research and development on artificial intelligence technology applications, especially in large models, and increased investment in fields such as the introduction of high-end talents and computing power. R&D expenses accounted for 48.8% of revenue, +2.8pct compared to the same period last year. The company has earlier carried out technology research and strategic layout in the fields of mobile Internet, cloud computing, big data, intelligent search, artificial intelligence, etc., and has a mature and stable technical development elite team, and has established a complex talent team combining information technology, financial engineering and artificial intelligence.
The increase in expenses led to a decline in the company's net profit. The company's total operating cost ratio for the first quarter of 2024 was 84.2%, +3.7 pct compared to the same period last year. The company's operating costs, sales expenses, and management expenses were +0.7%, +27.8%, and +14.8% year-on-year respectively, accounting for -0.1 pct, +3.7 pct, and +1.2 pct of revenue over the same period, respectively. The main reason for the increase in sales expenses is that the company has increased its marketing and promotion efforts, which has led to an increase in sales staff remuneration and advertising expenses.
Continue to increase the development of third-party fund sales business and build an Internet pan-financial intelligence service platform.
By the end of 2023, the “iFund” platform had access to a total of 216 fund companies and securities companies, selling 20040 products, an increase of 22 and 2,644 products respectively over the end of 2022. According to data from the Fund Industry Association, at the end of 2023, the company's share+hybrid public funds held 36 billion yuan, with a market share of 0.55%, ranking 33rd in the industry; non-monetary market public funds held 46 billion yuan, with a market share of 0.28%, ranking 41st in the industry.
Profit forecast and investment advice: Net profit for 2024E-2026E is estimated to be 1.7 billion yuan, 1.9 billion yuan and 2.1 billion yuan respectively, up 21%, 13%, and 12% year-on-year, corresponding to EPS of 3.15 yuan, 3.55 yuan, and 3.97 yuan respectively. Using a comparable company valuation method, we gave it a 2024 45-50x PE, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 141.75-157.50 yuan, corresponding to 8.5-9.5x2024E PB, maintaining a “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning: Internet financial policies have been tightened.
