Incident: The company released its 2024 quarterly report. Q1 achieved revenue of 124.944 billion yuan, +3.97% year on year, net profit of 4.771 billion yuan, +9.17% year on year, net profit of 3,752 billion yuan after deducting net profit of 3,752 billion yuan, +5.24% year on year.
Achieved basic earnings of $1.57 per share.
Our analysis and judgment:
Judging from the business situation, sales have increased steadily, and the advantage of scale has led to significant cost reduction results. Q1 sold 624,400 vehicles, +13.96% year over year; of these, sales of pure electric passenger cars reached 300,000 units, up 13.40% year on year; sales volume of plug-in hybrid passenger cars reached 324,000 units; up 14.48% year on year. This year, the company launched a number of “Honor Edition” models in a row. Not only were the configurations upgraded, but the prices were also lowered, which directly triggered a new round of price wars in the industry and led to a rapid increase in sales of the mid- and low-end models in its Dynasty and Ocean series.
Q1 The average price of the company's bicycles was 141,700 yuan, a year-on-year decline of nearly 30,000 yuan. However, the scale effect reduced costs and broadened profit margins. Bicycle operating profit was about 8,000 yuan, a positive increase over 23Q4.
Judging from financial data, R&D expenses in the first quarter exceeded 10.6 billion yuan, higher than Tesla. Q1 The company achieved revenue of 124.944 billion yuan, +3.97% year on year. After deducting BYD Electronics, business revenue was 88.464 billion yuan, -5.69% year over year; overall gross profit margin was 21.88%, +4.06 percentage points over the same period last year; of these, the gross profit margin after deducting BYD Electronics was 28.07%, +7.32 percentage points over the same period last year. The company's R&D expenses in the first quarter were 10.611 billion yuan, +70.10% year-on-year; the R&D expenses ratio was 8.49%, +3.3 percentage points over the same period last year.
Sales are expected to increase 20% year-on-year to 3.4 million units in 2024, and intelligent driving will be fully effective in the second half of the year.
According to the company's plan, 5 new models and the 5th generation DM-i hybrid technology will be launched in 2024. Equation Bao and Tensei revolve around diversification and deepening high-end, and are developing more diversified through the expansion of product forms (hunting vehicles, large-scale hardcore off-road, supercars). In the second half of the year, the company will launch a number of new models equipped with urban NOA, making full efforts in the field of smart driving.
Investment advice: We expect the company's revenue from 2024 to 2026 to be 7502.12/9029.17/1015.681 billion yuan, and net profit to mother will be 373.08/472.62/56.112 billion yuan, respectively. The corresponding EPS is 12.82 yuan, 16.23 yuan, and 19.27 yuan respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: 1. Risk of NEV sales falling short of expectations; 2. Overseas market expansion faces the risk of policy uncertainty; 3. Risk of increased market competition.