Incident Overview
(1) The company announced its 2023 annual report: 23 It achieved operating income of 760 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.65%, and realized net profit of 135 million yuan, an increase of 86.06% year-on-year, and realized deducted non-net profit of 114 million yuan, an increase of 70.58% over the previous year.
(2) The company announced its 2024 quarterly report: 24Q1 achieved operating income of 185 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.42%, realized net profit to mother of 0.23 million yuan, an increase of -10.22% year-on-year, and realized deducted non-net profit of 20 million yuan, an increase of 7.74% over the previous year.
Analytical judgment:
New orders continued to grow strongly in '23. Looking forward to continuing rapid growth in '24, the company achieved revenue of 760 million yuan in 23, an increase of 29.65% year on year, achieved revenue of 185 million yuan in 24Q1, an increase of 17.42% year on year, and continued the trend of rapid growth on the revenue side.
The company's new orders in '23 (excluding tax) were 1,292 billion yuan, up 23.89% year on year, and on-hand orders (excluding tax) were 1,881 billion yuan, up 24.97% year on year. The order side continued to grow rapidly, laying the foundation for rapid future performance growth. Based on continued growth on the demand side, the number of employees in the company continued to grow, that is, 4186 (yoy +15%) at the end of '23 and 4407 (yoy +13%) at the end of 24Q1. Looking ahead, considering that the number of supply-side employees continues to grow upward and demand-side orders show rapid growth, performance is expected to maintain a rapid growth trend in the next few years.
Investment advice
The company is one of the leaders in the domestic SMO market segment. Looking forward to the future, based on the rapid growth of SMO market demand and the gradual increase in the company's competitiveness, we judge that the company will continue to show a trend of rapid growth in the next 3 to 5 years. Considering the weak domestic investment and financing environment and increased industry competition, and adjusted 24-25 profit forecasts, we expect the 2024-2026 revenue to be adjusted from 10.02/12.98/NA 100 million yuan to 9.43/11.76/1,454 billion yuan, and the corresponding EPS will be adjusted from 3.06/4.17/NA yuan to 2.74/3.38/4.20 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 45.11 yuan/share on April 30, 2024. PE will be 16/13/11 times, respectively, to maintain “purchase” ratings.
Risk warning
Industry competition increases risk, risk of losing core technical personnel, risk of raising new production capacity less than expected, and intensifying competition