The Zhitong Finance App learned that Ping An Securities released a research report saying that based on the sales situation of Ideal Automobile-W (02015) in the first 4 months and the company's recent price system adjustments, the adjusted net profit forecast for 2024 to 2026 is 12.84 billion/ 20.8 billion yuan/26.27 billion yuan. Although the bank lowered the company's profit forecast, the company still maintains a healthy level of gross margin, sufficient cash on hand, and sufficient back-up preparations. The company has a strong voice in the high-end NEV market of 300,000 yuan or more, and the company's sales are still flexible after L6 listing, delivery and price reduction. At the same time, considering that the company's valuation level has been adjusted quite drastically, the bank still maintains the company's “recommended” rating.

Event: The company released delivery data for April 2024. In April 2024, the company delivered 25,787 new cars, an increase of 0.4% over the previous year. In the first four months of 2024, the company delivered a total of 106,187 units, an increase of 35.7% over the previous year.

The main views of Ping An Securities are as follows:

The company experienced many adjustments in the first 4 months of 2024.

Since orders for the company's first pure electric model, the MEGA, fell short of the company's initial expectations after the launch, the company has gone through many adjustments. First, lower high expectations for MEGA sales. The company said it would operate MEGA at a pace from 0 to 1, focusing on cities with strong consumption capacity for high-end pure electricity. Second, the company's organizational structure was adjusted again. According to reports from Tencent Auto and the late team, the core of this adjustment was to adjust the CEO's office to a “product and strategy group,” and Li Xiang himself focused more on “products.” On April 22, the company announced an adjustment to the price system after the launch of Ideal L6. L7\ L8\ L9 and MEGA announced price cuts of 18,000 to 30,000 yuan. According to Ideal Auto Liu Jie in an interview with the media, one reason for this price reduction was that the company realized that its forecast for the 24-year market was too optimistic (according to company statistics, the passenger car market sales volume of 300,000 or more in the first quarter of '24 fell 12% year-on-year), and in the first quarter of '24, the sales price of the main model terminals of traditional luxury brands dropped by 10-15 points.

The acceptance of the high-end pure electric market is still in the market cultivation stage.

The bank believes that MEGA's failure to meet expectations is due to the excessive sales expectations previously given by Ideal. Furthermore, it also confirms that the current market acceptance of high-end pure electricity is not high. Furthermore, part of the reason MEGA did not meet expectations is that there are still few charging stations with an ideal layout. To this end, the ideal is to increase the layout of the 2024 supercharging network, and plans to build 700 high-speed charging stations and 2,000 urban supercharging stations. According to Ideal Auto's announcement data, by the end of April 2024, Ideal had built a total of 386 ideal overcharging stations, with a total of 1,678 supercharging stations, of which 40 were supercharging stations in Ideal City. In terms of connecting to third-party charging stations, the number of connected third-party partner charging stations reached 70,000+, including more than 1,000 overcharging stations (charging power > 480 kW), covering 162 cities.

The competitive environment faced by the company's 24-year sales base L series is still good.

First of all, there aren't many plug-in hybrid (including growth range) models with a certain sales volume within the 200,000-300,000 yuan price band. Before the ideal L6 is launched, the bank expects L6 sales to reach 15,000 to 20,000 units; within the 300,000-400,000 yuan price range, the competitiveness of the L7 and L8 will be further enhanced after the price reduction, and currently there are not many plug-in hybrid (including growth) models within this price band, mainly the Tensei D9 DMI; in the 400,000 price range and above, only the Quanjie M9 competes with the L9. There is already a difference of 60,000 yuan in the starting price of the two models after the L9 price reduction.

The company's sales volume is expected to return again after the price system is adjusted.

According to terminal discount data previously collected by Gellan Road, the 2023 Ideal L Series terminal discount range reached 33,000 to 36,000 yuan in early '24. The price reduction of the L series this time is still lower than the discount margin of the previous 23 L series terminals, and the bank also believes that the sales volume of the company's L series will gradually return after the price reduction. Furthermore, according to the order data disclosed by the company, Ideal L6 has been on the market for 12 days, and the cumulative order has exceeded 20,000 units.

Risk warning: 1) Market competition is becoming more intense. If other car companies follow up with price cuts, the company's potential orders may be lost; 2) L series sales will fall short of expectations, causing the company's basic sales to be unstable in 2024; 3) The company will also launch 3 pure electric models in the second half of the year, and sales may not meet expectations.