Q1's performance increased significantly from month to month. I am optimistic that the profit of filament will continue to recover. Maintaining the “Buy” rating company's 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report, the full year of 2024 achieved revenue of 82,640 billion yuan, +33.30% year over year, and realized net profit to mother of 797 million yuan, +539.10% year over year, achieving net profit after deduction of 455 million yuan and +5208.32% year over year. At the same time, 2024Q1 achieved revenue of 21.111 billion yuan, +32.66% year over month, and realized net profit of 580 million yuan to mother, +218.01% year on year, and +644.30% month on month.
Combined with the company's 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report, we maintain the 2024, lower 2025, and add the 2026 company profit forecast. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is 36.60, 46.49 (-10.10), and 5.460 billion yuan, respectively, and EPS is 1.52, 1.93 (-0.42), and 2.26 yuan, respectively. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 9.1, 7.1, and 6.1 times, respectively. We are optimistic that the company, as a leader in the domestic filament industry, will fully benefit from the continued recovery of the filament industry's prosperity and maintain a “buy” rating in the future.
In 2023, the company's filament volume increased sharply, 2024Q1 filament profit decreased and PTA profit improved. In terms of sales, according to the company's announcement, the total sales volume of the company's filament in 2023 was about 10.31 million tons, +35% over the same period last year. Among them, POY, FDY, and DTY sales accounted for 76%, 14%, and 10% respectively. Looking at product segments, in 2023, the company's POY, FDY, and DTY sales were about 784, 147, and 990,000 tons, respectively, +35%, +38%, and +27%, respectively. In terms of profit per ton, the gross profit per ton of the company's POY, FDY and DTY products in 2023 was about 354, 747, and 210 yuan/ton, respectively, +76%, +31%, and +413%, respectively. Additionally, 2024Q1's total filament sales volume was 2.59 million tons, +35% year over year and -14% month over month. In terms of price spread, according to Baichuan Yingfu data, the average price difference of 2024Q1 polyester filament POY was 1,098 yuan/ton, up 1.66% from Q4. Also, in terms of PTA, the average price spread of 2024Q1PTA was 231 yuan/ton, up 48.74% from Q4, and PTA profit improved.
The growth rate of new production capacity in the filament industry is slowing down in 2024, and industry sentiment is expected to continue to recover. According to our statistics, it is estimated that the new production capacity of the filament industry will be only 900,000 tons in 2024. If we take into account the relocation of some of the existing production capacity and the further removal of backward production capacity, the actual net increase in production capacity is expected to be negative in 2024. In this context, we believe that the supply pattern of the filament industry is expected to improve significantly in the future. In the future, along with steady growth in domestic demand and direct exports, as well as marginal improvements in terminal textile and garment exports, leading companies are expected to fully enjoy the price elasticity of filament. In addition, the company is actively promoting refining and chemical projects in Northern Indonesia, and is expected to open up long-term growth space for itself in the future.
Risk warning: Oil prices fluctuate greatly, downstream demand weakens, production capacity investment falls short of expectations, etc.