Core views:
The results fell slightly short of expectations. The company released its 23rd annual report and 24Q1 quarterly report on April 24. In '23, the company achieved revenue of 8.089 billion yuan, +94.99%, net profit to mother of 914 million yuan, +6.03% year-on-year, net profit of 857 million yuan after year; looking at 23Q4 alone, the company achieved revenue of 2,982 billion yuan, +163.23%, net profit to mother of 200 million yuan, year-on-year net profit of 200 million yuan, +20.20% year-on-year; 24Q1, Achieved revenue of 2,218 billion yuan, +91.80% year-on-year, net profit to mother of 260 million yuan, +17.79% year-on-year, and net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 220 million yuan, +13.73% year-on-year.
Reduced profit margins were a major factor in missed performance, and there was an improvement over the 24Q1 period. 23Q4 revenue +163.23% YoY, gross profit margin 27.05%, YoY -10.30pct, month-on-month -5.25pct, net profit margin 6.91%, -7.19pct YoY, -5.43pct; 24Q1 revenue +91.80%, gross profit margin 30.93%, -3.10pct YoY, +3.88pct, net profit margin of 10.84%, YoY -6.86pct, YoY +3.93pct, the gross margin of the company's screen-printing line equipment declined significantly in '23; Heterojunction The entire line of equipment has been gradually increased, and inspection is beginning one after another, but due to early commissioning, scale effects, etc., it has not yet provided effective support for profit margins.
The pan-semiconductor layout is gradually becoming clear. On the HJT side, it continues to promote “three minus one increase” to push HJT towards maturity; the semiconductor sector has been laid out in Micro Led, Mini Led, and advanced semiconductor packaging. In the five-year dimension, the non-photovoltaic business will become an important part of the company's revenue.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. The company's revenue for 24-26 is estimated to be 123.69/152.70/17.995 billion yuan, and net profit due to mother for the same period is 16.04/21.90/2,842 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding PE is 20/15/11 times. Considering comparable company valuations, the company's performance growth rate, and the company's industry position, we gave the company 25 times PE in 24 years, a reasonable value of 143.69 yuan/share for the corresponding company, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning. The PV industry's installed capacity falls short of expectations; HJT progress falls short of expectations; breakthroughs in new products fall short of expectations; the risk of increased competition and declining market share.