Event: The company released its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report. The company achieved revenue of 72.251 billion yuan in 2023, an increase of 79.47%; net profit to mother was 9.44 billion yuan, an increase of 162.69%. Among them, 23Q4's revenue for a single quarter was 25.836 billion yuan, up 43.27%, up 45.21%; net profit to mother was 2,217 billion yuan, up 44.61% year on year, down 22.74%. The 24Q1 company achieved revenue of 12.614 billion yuan, an increase of 0.26%; net profit to mother was 2,096 billion yuan, an increase of 39.05%.
The company's revenue and shipments of inverters and energy storage systems all increased in 2023, and overseas growth was high.
By product: 2023.1) Inverter revenue was 27.653 billion yuan, an increase of 60.97%. The gross profit margin was 37.93% (+5.51pct), and the annual inverter shipment volume was 130 GW. The company has a brand advantage, and the price side is steadily compounded by exchange rate contributions. The gross margin of the company's inverters has increased dramatically, and it is expected that Q3 will continue the high upward trend; 2) energy storage system revenue of 17.802 billion yuan, an increase of 75.79%, gross profit margin of 37.47% (+14.23pct); 3) new energy investment and development revenue of 24.734 billion yuan, an increase of 113.15%, and a gross profit margin of 16.36% (+4.60pct). In 2023, global shipments of wind power converters were 32GW, with the largest market share in the world, an increase of 40%. Shipments of offshore wind power converters were 4.6GW, an increase of 190%. 4) In terms of hydrogen energy, the company has mass production capacity for integrated system equipment such as IGBT hydrogen production power supplies, alkaline and PEM electrolyzers. It is currently preparing to advance the construction of the second phase of a 3GW plant with an annual output of 3 GW, which is expected to be put into operation in early 2024.
By region: In 2023, the company's domestic revenue was 38.881 billion yuan, up 83.45%, gross profit margin 20.73% (-1.31pct); overseas revenue was 33.369 billion yuan, up 75.05% from the same period, with a gross profit margin of 41.57% (+14.24pct).
The leading position in optical storage is stable, and the company's profitability remains at a high level. Gross profit side: In 2023, the company's gross margin increased 5.81 pcts to 30.36%; 23Q4 gross profit margin was 28.63%, up 5.08 pcts, -5.75 pcts month-on-month; 24Q1 gross margin was 36.67%, up 8.67 pcts, or 8.04 pcts month-on-month. Rate side: In 2023, the company's sales/management/ R&D/finance rate was 7.15%/1.21%/3.39%/0.03%, with a year-on-year change of -0.72pct/-0.31pct/-0.82pct/1.21pct. Net interest rate: In 2023, the company's net interest rate increased 4.12pct to 13.3%; 23Q4 net interest rate was 8.81%, 0.12pct, -7.6pct month-on-month; 24Q1 net interest rate was 16.71%, 4.55pct, or 7.9pct month-on-month.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. The company's net profit for 2024-26 is expected to be 105.43/126.91/15.286 billion yuan, an increase of 11.7%/20.4%/20.4%, corresponding to 2024/2025/2026E PE valuation of 14.6/12.1/10.0 times, maintaining the “gain” rating.
Risk warning: rising raw material prices, demand for photovoltaics and energy storage falling short of expectations, risk of policy changes.