Last week saw the newest quarterly earnings release from Green Brick Partners, Inc. (NYSE:GRBK), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Revenues were US$447m, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$1.82, an impressive 21% ahead of estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Green Brick Partners

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Green Brick Partners from four analysts is for revenues of US$2.01b in 2024. If met, it would imply a notable 14% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to swell 11% to US$7.41. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.95b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.84 in 2024. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in sentiment following the latest results, given the upgrades to both revenue and earnings per share forecasts for next year.

With these upgrades, we're not surprised to see that the analysts have lifted their price target 6.5% to US$57.50per share. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Green Brick Partners, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$62.00 and the most bearish at US$53.00 per share. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Green Brick Partners' past performance and to peers in the same industry. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 18% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 21% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 5.4% annually. So although Green Brick Partners is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Green Brick Partners' earnings potential next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Green Brick Partners going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see whether Green Brick Partners is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.