海外建材短期承压，增产提价可期：24Q1 海外建材产销量稳步增长，因受市场结构性竞争及部分区域货币贬值影响，销售价格承压，盈利空间有所收窄。公司海外建材产能持续扩张，肯尼亚基苏木洁具项目已于24 年1 月投产，喀麦隆陶瓷项目及坦桑尼亚建筑玻璃项目预计于年内投产，秘鲁建筑玻璃项目及科特迪瓦建筑陶瓷项目均稳步推进建设，洪都拉斯陶瓷项目处于筹划中。随着后续竞争格局的改善及提价的逐步推进，公司海外建材盈利能力修复可期。Incidents:
The company released its 2024 quarterly report. 24Q1 achieved total operating revenue/net profit/net profit after deduction of non-net profit of 25.6/3.1/280 million yuan, +2.8%/-22.6%/-25.7% year-on-year.
Comment:
Overseas building materials are under pressure in the short term, and increases in production and prices can be expected: 24Q1 Overseas building materials production and sales have increased steadily. Due to structural competition in the market and currency depreciation in some regions, sales prices are under pressure, and profit margins have narrowed. The company's overseas building materials production capacity continues to expand. The Kenyan Kisumu sanitary ware project was put into operation in January 24. The Cameroonian ceramics project and the Tanzanian architectural glass project are expected to be put into operation within the year. The construction of the Peruvian architectural glass project and the Ivorian architectural ceramics project is progressing steadily, and the Honduran ceramics project is being planned. With the subsequent improvement of the competitive pattern and the gradual advancement of price increases, the profitability of the company's overseas building materials can be expected to recover.
Pottery machine orders have increased dramatically, and lithium carbonate production and sales have declined; benefiting from the global sales network and perfect multi-product chain support and services, 24Q1's pottery orders have increased dramatically. The company accelerated its European market layout through the acquisition of the only Italian company, and 24Q1's overseas orders for pottery machines increased rapidly, accounting for 65% from 55% at the end of 23. 24Q1 has increased production and sales of lithium battery materials, but the gross margin of the business is still under pressure due to industry supply and demand relationships and price declines. Lanke Lithium, in which the company is a shareholder, has strong production and sales volume of 0.87/0.99 million tons, an increase of 38%/607%. Affected by the sharp month-on-month decline in lithium carbonate prices, the net profit belonging to the company declined year-on-year. 24Q1 Lanke Lithium achieved revenue/net profit of 78/230 million yuan, +39%/-40% year-on-year, and confirmed net profit attributable to the company was 100 million yuan, -40% year over year.
The gross margin has declined, and the financial expense ratio has dropped sharply: in 24Q1 the company's gross margin/net margin was 26.9%/15.9%, -5.4/-6.5 pcts year-on-year. The 24Q1 sales/management/finance/R&D expense ratio was 6.2%/7.1%/-0.5%/3.1%, +1.1/+1.3/-4.7/+0.4pcts, or due to an increase in overall exchange earnings, the company's 24Q1 financial expense ratio dropped sharply, which led to a 1.9 pcts year-on-year decline in the cost ratio during the period. The net operating cash flow inflow of the 24Q1 company was 100 million yuan, and the net operating cash flow was positive year on year.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: The high increase in the company's pottery machine orders is expected to support performance growth. Increased production and price increases for overseas building materials can be expected. We maintain the 24-26 net profit forecast of 19.2/22.0/2.39 billion yuan, maintaining the “increase” rating.
Risk warning: The price of lithium carbonate continues to fall, environmental requirements increase the cost of lithium extraction; the growth rate of demand for building materials in Africa falls short of expectations; domestic economic recovery and carbon reform are falling short of expectations.
