Key points of investment
Through 24Q1 results, the company has shown the results of its reforms. Recently, the company announced an employee stock ownership plan to dispel current market concerns about the company's long-term sustainability.
Employee stock ownership plan announced, purchase price 12.01 yuan/share
The company announced the 2024 employee stock ownership plan. The maximum amount of capital to be raised is 237.978 million yuan, and the number of shares held is no more than 1.9815 million shares, accounting for about 0.49% of the company's total share capital. The employee purchase price is 12.01 yuan/share.
Performance review includes revenue and profit
The company assesses the 2024-2026 results. The revenue is tax-inclusive income, and net profit is net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies excluding the impact of share payments.
1) 2024: Tax-inclusive revenue of 11.5 billion yuan, net profit of 400 million yuan; 2) 2025: tax-inclusive revenue of 15 billion yuan, net profit of 400 million yuan; 3) 2026: Tax-inclusive revenue of 20 billion yuan, net profit of 400 million yuan.
Expense amortization: Assuming that the transfer of the underlying shares of the initial subscription was completed in June 2024, the total cost was RMB 21.65,800, and the amortization for 2024-2027 was 703.65, 974.28, 378.89, and RMB 1.082,500, respectively.
This employee shareholding shows confidence in the company's long-term development
The company's current employee stock ownership plan shows the company's long-term development confidence and continues to move towards the three-year target of 20 billion dollars. Assuming that the company's incentives and goals are achieved, the 3-year compound revenue growth rate will reach about 35%, dispelling previous market concerns about the company's long-term sustainability. We still believe that under a high-end cost performance strategy, the company has achieved an all-category and omni-channel business model through continuous transformation from the inside out. The company uses Douyin as a starting point to achieve omni-channel operation, superimposing scale effects and supply chain optimization to drive continuous growth in performance.
The previous profit forecast was slightly raised to maintain the buying rating
Based on the company's performance assessment goals, we slightly raised our previous profit forecast. The company's revenue is expected to reach 103.34/134.88/17.603 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with year-on-year increases of 45.25%, 30.52%, and 30.51% respectively; the net profit forecast for 24-26 is estimated to be 405, 5.78, and 781 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 84.03%, 42.81%, 35.18%, and corresponding PE 24.43, 17.11, and 12.65 times, respectively.
Risk warning: Food safety risks, channel expansion falling short of expectations, development of large single products falling short of expectations, etc.