空运供需结构转变，全年“空”降“地”增。2023 年，航空速运/地面综合服务/综合物流解决方案营收分别同比-31.37%/0.55%/16.74%，毛利润分别同比-51.78%/119.87%/-12.65%。1）航空速运方面，2023 年，公司货邮运输周转量同比增长18.8%；机队汰换提质，进3 退5，运营14 架B777 全货机，机型结构统一。尽管客机腹舱快速恢复，但得益于跨境电商货量增长，以及欧美航线班次加密，货机运营效率显著提升。全货机日利用率同比提升12.85%至12.56 小时，装载率同比略降，维持83.12%的较高水平，但由于空运价格大幅下滑，公司收入和利润同比大幅下滑。2）地面综合服务方面，货运处理量同比增长9.04%，其中在上海两场处理量同比增长4.13%，市占率53.6%。公司积极拓展新航司客户，提高增值服务，充分挖掘市场需求，#毛利率快速修复至40.48%。3）综合物流解决方案方面，跨境电商解决方案增长亮眼，营收同比增长71.71%至46.98 亿元，通过加快城市布局和产品体系构建，生鲜冷链增长突出，定制化物流实现突破。Description of the event
China Eastern Airlines Logistics revealed its 2023 annual report: In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 20.621 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.14%, and net profit of 2.488 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.58%; in the fourth quarter of 2023, revenue of 6.39 billion yuan, an increase of 10.11% over the previous year, and net profit to mother of 823 million yuan, an increase of 18.69% over the previous year.
Incident comments
The structure of air transport supply and demand changed, and “air” decreased and “ground” increased throughout the year. In 2023, the revenue of air express transport/integrated ground services/integrated logistics solutions was -31.37%/0.55%/16.74%, respectively, and gross profit was -51.78%/119.87%/-12.65%, respectively. 1) In terms of air express transportation, in 2023, the company's cargo and mail transportation turnover increased by 18.8% year on year; the fleet was replaced and quality was upgraded, 3 and 5, and 14 B777 freighters were operated, and the aircraft structure was unified. Despite the rapid recovery of passenger aircraft ventricles, freighter operation efficiency improved markedly thanks to the increase in cross-border e-commerce cargo volume and the encryption of flights on European and American routes. The daily utilization rate of all freighters increased by 12.85% year on year to 12.56 hours, and the loading rate decreased slightly year over year, maintaining a high level of 83.12%. However, due to the sharp drop in air freight prices, the company's revenue and profit declined sharply year on year. 2) In terms of integrated ground services, freight processing volume increased by 9.04% year on year. Among them, processing volume in Shanghai increased 4.13% year on year, with a market share of 53.6%. The company actively expands new airline customers, enhances value-added services, and fully exploits market demand, #毛利率快速修复至40 .48%. 3) In terms of integrated logistics solutions, cross-border e-commerce solutions grew significantly. Revenue increased 71.71% year over year to 4.698 billion yuan. By speeding up urban layout and product system construction, fresh cold chain growth is outstanding, and customized logistics has achieved breakthroughs.
Q4 The economy has improved, and profits have improved significantly. The cross-border e-commerce full hosting model broke out. Q4 welcomed the peak overseas shopping season of Black Friday and Christmas. Air freight prices increased significantly month-on-month, and the TAC average freight rate index at Shanghai Pudong Airport rose 37.3% month-on-month. The company's revenue reached 6.39 billion yuan, which is only lower than the highest level in 4Q21-1Q22 history. The company's daily utilization rate of all freighters increased to 14.29 hours, far higher than the annual 12.56 hour level. Profit flexibility was fully released, and Q4 net profit to mother reached 823 million yuan, close to a record high.
The cross-border e-commerce boom continues to rise, the bottom of general goods exports has recovered, and demand for air transport is expected to rise steadily. There is limited growth in the supply of wide-body freighters, and the freight rate center is expected to rise. The 2024 Long Association price increase was better than expected, and the situation in the Middle East may further boost freight rates. In addition, the company is steadily advancing the Pudong Airport West Area Cargo Terminal Phase II (annual processing capacity of 300,000 tons) and the Pudong Airport Smart Cargo Terminal project (designed to handle 600,000 tons per year). At the same time, it is actively promoting the construction of an operation base in South China and planning the South China cargo terminal and ground operation resources. The company's net profit for 2024-2025 is estimated to be 32.3/37.7/4.33 billion yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 9.1/7.8/6.8X, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning
1. Risk of policy changes;
2. Low expectations for cross-border e-commerce volume growth;
3. Demand for general air freight falls short of expectations;
4. The number of international flights by foreign airlines has exceeded expectations.
