This week's big schedule at a glance

• Looking ahead to this week, the market's eyes will once again focus on the Federal Reserve, and many officials will take turns speaking.

Last week, the Federal Reserve announced its latest interest rate decision, keeping the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 5.25%-5.5%. Starting in June, it will slow down the pace of contraction. The monthly US debt redemption limit will be lowered from 60 billion US dollars to 25 billion US dollars, and MBS's reinvestment will shift to US bonds. The Federal Reserve stated in its policy statement that there has been no progress in achieving the inflation target, inflation is still high, and we need to pay close attention to the risk of inflation.

This week, many Federal Reserve officials will “go out”, and it is expected that they will still “play tai chi”, as Goulsby, Bowman, and Williams did last Friday: try to avoid the topic of interest rate cuts, and continue to emphasize that inflation is still high, interest rates need to stay high for some time, there is currently no urgency to cut interest rates, etc...

• In terms of financial reports, the US stock Q1 earnings season is about to enter its final stage, and the financial reports of the two major chip giants in the Hong Kong stock market have attracted much attention.

As of Friday's close, 397 of the S&P 500 companies had released financial reports, with 77% reporting results that exceeded market expectations. The performance of key companies such as Disney, Occidental Petroleum, and Arm is worth keeping an eye on this week. Hong Kong stocks have experienced a week of sharp gains, and the earnings season will also attract market attention. SMIC and Huahong Semiconductor will be on the list on Thursday.

• In terms of major economic data, the number of initial jobless claims in the US, the May 1 inflation rate forecast, and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index will be revealed one after another. China's April Caixin service industry PMI, M2 money supply annual rate, and April CPI will be revealed.

Non-farm payrolls data for April showed a marked slowdown in wage growth, and the pace of recruitment was in line with pre-COVID-19 levels. However, investors are not worried that US companies may be under greater pressure from the economic slowdown; instead, they are concerned that the latest non-farm payrolls data may cause the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as soon as possible. Compared to the market's optimistic view, Jason Pride, head of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said that from the perspective of the Federal Reserve, overall weak data “is what really matters.”

China's Caixin Services PMI for April and Caixin's comprehensive PMI data will soon be released. The March Caixin Services PMI released last month rose to 52.7, expanding for 15 consecutive months, and the service sector continues to recover.

• Furthermore, investors will continue to wait and see if the yen weakens further. On Thursday, the Bank of Japan will publish a summary of the opinions of the review committee members of the April monetary policy meeting.

Investors and analysts say that in the medium to long term, the yen may continue to weaken. The biggest reason for the recent depreciation of the yen is the huge difference in interest rates between Japan and other major economies. Although the Bank of Japan recently raised the policy interest rate, this spread is still very large, and it is currently expected that the inflation rate will be more sticky than expected to keep US interest rates high for a longer period of time.

If the Bank of Japan raises interest rates again, this spread will narrow, but the narrowing may be minimal. Bank of Japan officials have hinted at plans to keep monetary policy loose.

This week's key performance calendar

Monday May 6th

Keywords: China's April Caixin Services PMI, Japanese stock market suspension; Palantir, Lucid Group performance

On Monday, in terms of economic data, major data such as China's Caixin Services PMI for April and the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index for May will be revealed.

In terms of the incident, the Japanese stock market will be closed for one day due to Children's Day.

In terms of financial reports,$Palantir (PLTR.US)$,$Lucid Group (LCID.US)$Major US stock companies will announce their results after the market.

Tuesday May 7th

Keywords: China's foreign exchange reserves in April; many Federal Reserve officials delivered speeches; Disney, Occidental Petroleum, Rivian performance

On Tuesday, in terms of economic data, data such as China's foreign exchange reserves for April and the monthly retail sales rate in the Eurozone for March will be revealed one after another.

In terms of the incident, a number of Federal Reserve officials will take turns attending the speech. These include: FOMC Voting Committee 2024, Richmond Federal Reserve Chairman Barkin; FOMC Permanent Voting Committee and New York Federal Reserve Chairman Williams; and 2026 FOMC Voting Committee and Minneapolis Federal Reserve Chairman Kashkari.

In terms of earnings, the streaming giant$Disney (DIS.US)$It will be on the pre-market list,$Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$,$Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US)$,$Upstart (UPST.US)$Other companies will release their latest results after the market.

Wednesday May 8th

Keywords: monthly wholesale sales rate in the US in March; Federal Reserve Vice Chairman and Boston Federal Reserve Chairman delivered a speech; Arm, Uber, AMC theater performance

On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, data such as US EIA crude oil inventories for the week up to May 3 and the monthly rate of US wholesale sales in March are worth paying attention to.

In connection with the incident, Federal Reserve officials continued to make speeches, including Vice Chairman Jefferson and Boston Federal Reserve Chairman Collins.

In terms of financial reports, important US stock companies have been listed one after another.$Uber Technologies (UBER.US)$,$Shopify (SHOP.US)$,$Affirm Holdings (AFRM.US)$Financial reports will be announced before the market.$Arm Holdings (ARM.US)$,$AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$,$Airbnb (ABNB.US)$Earnings will be released after the market.

Thursday May 9th

Keywords: China's April trade balance, M2 money supply annual rate; number of initial US jobless claims; SMIC, Huahong Semiconductor, Marathon Digital earnings report

On Thursday, in terms of economic data, China's April trade balance, M2 money supply annual rate, and the number of US jobless claims for the week up to May 4 attracted investors' attention.

In terms of the incident, the Bank of Japan will publish a summary of the opinions of the review committee members of the April monetary policy meeting.

In terms of financial reports, leading Hong Kong semiconductors$SMIC (00981.HK)$,$HUA HONG SEMI (01347.HK)$The latest results will be revealed; cryptocurrency concept stocks on the US stock market$Marathon Digital (MARA.US)$, and$Roblox (RBLX.US)$,$SoundHound AI (SOUN.US)$Other companies will also be listed one after another.

Friday May 10th

Keywords: US inflation rate expectations for May 1, University of Michigan consumer confidence index; Federal Reserve Governor Bowman and San Francisco Federal Reserve Chairman Daly delivered speeches

On Friday, in terms of economic data, important data such as the US inflation rate forecast for the first year of May and the US University of Michigan consumer confidence index for May are worth paying attention to.

In terms of the incident, the 2024 FOMC voting committee and San Francisco Federal Reserve Chairman Daly will attend a fireside conversation at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on Friday; Federal Reserve Governor Bowman will deliver a speech on financial stability risks at 21:00 Beijing time on Friday.

Furthermore, on Saturday (May 11) at 1:30 a.m. Beijing time, Federal Reserve Governor Barr will deliver a speech, and China's April CPI annual rate will be announced at 9:30 a.m. on Saturday, which also deserves special attention from investors.

Good luck with your investments in the new week!

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