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赛维时代(301381):业绩持续高增长 股权激励激发核心团队

Saiwei Era (301381): Continued high performance growth, equity incentives stimulate the core team

申萬宏源研究 ·  May 5, 2024 14:36

Key points of investment:

The company released its annual report for '23 and its quarterly report for '24. Performance continued to increase, and the quarterly report's performance exceeded expectations. 1) The 23-year performance was in line with expectations. The company achieved operating income of 6.564 billion yuan, an increase of 33.7% year on year, and net profit to mother of 340 million yuan, an increase of 81.6% year on year. In line with the performance report data, the performance was in line with expectations. 2) The 24Q1 boom continued, and the performance exceeded expectations. Revenue was 1.80 billion yuan, up 44.7% year on year, and net profit to mother was 86.04 million yuan, up 65.6% year on year. Revenue and profit performance exceeded expectations, mainly due to strong growth in the apparel accessories category and recovery in the non-apparel accessories category. The company plans to pay a dividend of 2.5 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares, plus a special dividend, for a total dividend rate of 60%.

The cross-border e-commerce business has grown significantly, and the level of profit is progressing steadily. 1) Cross-border e-commerce sales have maintained a high increase. Product sales revenue increased 35% year-on-year to 6.4 billion yuan in '23, accounting for 97% of revenue. Non-apparel sales increased 19% to 1.74 billion yuan, accounting for 27% of revenue, and gross margin increased 0.7 pct to 38.1% year over year. The revenue from the logistics service business fell 12% year on year to 130 million yuan, accounting for 2% of revenue. Among cross-border export sales, apparel accessories sales increased 41% year on year to 4.67 billion yuan, accounting for 71% of total revenue, and gross margin decreased 0.1 pct to 49.2% year on year. 2) 24Q1 revenue continued to increase and profitability improved. The 24Q1 clothing category's sales revenue was 1.31 billion yuan, an increase of 50.1% over the previous year. Benefiting from Amazon's reduction in some prices with commissions in the clothing category, the profit margins of some clothing brands further increased. Revenue from the non-apparel accessories category was 430 million yuan, up 26.5% year on year. After early inventory removal, the profit margin of this category also improved markedly.

Scaling empowers the clothing brand matrix and accelerates channel sales. 1) The core brand has grown brilliantly, and the brand matrix incubation effect has been shown. In '23, the annual sales of the menswear brand Coofandy and the loungewear brand Ekouaer surpassed 1 billion yuan for the first time, and the growth rate was impressive. Coofandy's sales increased 59% to 1.46 billion yuan, and Ekouaer increased 42% to 1.29 billion yuan. Underwear brand Avidlove's annual sales increased 33% to 630 million yuan. ANCHEER, Zeagoo, COBIZI, Hotouch, Arshiner, and Vivi brands all have annual sales of over 100 million yuan. 2) Diversified channel layout, strong growth in North America. The Amazon platform is the main sales channel, and revenue in '23 increased 32% year over year to 5.8 billion yuan, accounting for 88%. Walmart's revenue increased 140% to 270 million yuan, accounting for 4%. eBay's revenue increased 32% to 49.02 million yuan, accounting for 1% of revenue. The revenue of self-operated websites increased by 24% to 180 million yuan, accounting for 3% of revenue. By region, the core market, North America, grew strongly, with revenue rising 41% year-on-year to 5.9 billion yuan in '23, accounting for 90%.

Profitability is steadily improving, and cost rate control is effective. 1) The gross margin increased significantly, and the cost ratio decreased. In '23, due to adjustments in accounting standards, the company adjusted transportation expenses to operating costs. Under the same caliber, gross margin increased by about 1 pct to 46% year on year, sales expenses decreased by 0.7 pct to 35.7% year on year, management expenses (including R&D) stabilized at 4%, and net interest rate increased 1.3 pct to 5% year on year. 24Q1 gross margin increased further to 47.2%, mainly benefiting from improved inventory in non-apparel categories. The sales expense ratio increased by 2.2 pct to 38% year-on-year, mainly due to increased market share and increased brand promotion expenses.

The management expense ratio (including R&D) remained stable at 4%, and the net interest rate increased by 0.6 pct to 5% year-on-year. 2) Cash flow increased, inventory increased due to increased business volume and inventory. At the end of 23, the company's inventory was 800 million yuan, an increase of 33% over the previous year, mainly due to increased sales volume and the need to increase inventory preparation. 24Q1 was 850 million yuan. Net cash flow from operating activities in '23 was 550 million yuan, up 31% year on year. As of the first quarter of '24, the company's cash and equivalent at the end of the period was $430 million.

Release an equity incentive plan to demonstrate confidence in development. It is proposed to grant 12.03 million restricted shares to 435 incentive recipients, accounting for approximately 3.0% of the company's total share capital. Of these, 117.699 million shares were granted for the first time, accounting for about 98.1% of the total amount to be granted under the incentive plan. 233,300 shares were reserved, accounting for about 1.94%, and the grant price was 12.69 yuan/share. The performance assessment is based on revenue in 2023, with a growth rate of not less than 30%/55%/85% in 2024-2026, or the 2024-2026 growth rate of not less than 25%/50%/80%. If measured by the minimum completion amount each year, the corresponding revenue growth rate is not less than 30%/19%/19%, and the year-on-year profit growth rate is not less than 25%/20%/20%. The share incentive grant for the first time is expected to incur amortization expenses of 160 million yuan, which will amortize 53.36 million/64.64 million/3.69 million/9.1 million in 24-27 years, respectively. Continuously motivate the core team and demonstrate confidence in development.

Saiwei Era is a technology-driven cross-border e-commerce enterprise. It empowers all business processes with a digital operation system, enhances its ability to control goods with flexible supply and small orders, and continues to maintain a “buy” rating. Considering the increase in cost amortization due to equity incentives, we slightly lowered our profit forecast and added a 26-year profit forecast. We expect net profit to be 4.5/58/ 70 million yuan for 24-26 respectively (the original net profit for 24-25 was 50/ 670 million yuan), corresponding to PE 23/18/15 times. In the future, the company is expected to reuse brand cultivation experience, expand business growth, be optimistic about the brand's overseas journey, and maintain a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: online sales channel risk; overseas business risk; risk of new product sales falling short of expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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