2024 年Q1，公司实现营业收入1045.68 亿元，同比下降19.03%，环比增长15.67%；归母净利润4.08 亿元，同比下降25.39%，环比增长3.80%。Xiamen Xiangyu has released the 2023 Annual Report and the First Quarter Report 2024:
In 2023, the company achieved operating income of 459.035 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.70%; net profit to mother of 1,574 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40.31%; net cash flow from operating activities was 5.587 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.23%; basic earnings per share was 0.63 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.73%; and a weighted average return on net assets was 9.29%, a year-on-year decrease of 8.77 percentage points.
In Q4 2023, the company achieved operating income of 90.401 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.25% and a month-on-month decrease of 33.08%; net profit to mother was 393 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.94%, and a year-on-year increase of 35.53%.
In Q1 2024, the company achieved operating income of 104.568 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.03% and a year-on-month increase of 15.67%; net profit to mother was 408 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.39% and an increase of 3.80% month-on-month.
The performance of the bulk sector is under pressure, and the shipbuilding business is developing steadily. By sector, 1) Commodity management: In 2023, the company's commodity business achieved operating income of 439.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.64%; current gross profit margin was 1.40%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.33 percentage points; mainly due to insufficient effective market demand, overcapacity in some industries, weak social expectations, and commodity price fluctuations declined; among them, due to declining raw grain prices, downstream customers reduced inventory, and the current gross margin of the agricultural product supply chain were respectively - 5.42 100 million yuan, -0.89%. 2) Commodity logistics: In 2023, the company's commodity logistics business achieved revenue of 7.085 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.84%; gross profit margin was 9.93%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.89 percentage points. 3) Manufacturing: In 2023, the company's shipbuilding business achieved revenue of 4.737 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.62%; a gross profit margin of 22.56%, an increase of 13.56 percentage points; 37 new orders were received each year, and the total number of new orders received exceeded 8.2 billion yuan. Both order volume and gross profit from receiving orders reached record highs. By the end of 2023, 64 orders were in progress.
The customer structure continues to be optimized, and the market share has bucked the trend. 1) The share of the company's manufacturing customer service volume in 2023:
The overall stability is above 60%; among them, the new energy supply chain is over 80%, the ferrous metal and aluminum supply chain is over 70%, the coal and grain supply chain is over 60%, and the stainless steel supply chain is over 50%. 2) In 2023, the company achieved 225.15 million tons of commodities, an increase of 13.74% over the previous year; among them, the operating volume of ferrous metals, thermal coal, aluminum, grains, etc., all increased by more than 10%, the sales volume of new energy sources increased by more than 70%, and the oil business volume increased by more than 110%.
Accelerate international expansion and enhance core competitiveness. In 2023, the company promoted the construction of overseas platforms, accelerated the international layout, and achieved a total import and export volume of about US$19.9 billion, an increase of 16% over the previous year; of these, total imports were about US$17 billion, an increase of more than 30% over the previous year. In terms of commodity management, we have achieved breakthroughs in international business in categories such as aluminum, agricultural products, coking coal, oil, and new energy. Among them, imports of aluminum alloy ingots increased by more than 330% year on year, and export volume of scrap aluminum increased by more than 150% year on year; Mongolian coal imports increased by more than 170% year on year; Mongolian coal imports increased by more than 17%; palm oil imports increased by more than 120% year on year; and photovoltaic exports increased by more than 100% year on year.
Profit forecast, valuation and investment rating: Considering that industry demand is still under pressure, the company is expected to achieve net profit of 18.94 billion yuan, 22.27, and 2,594 billion yuan in 2024-2026 (the previous forecast values for 2024-2025 were 24.52 billion yuan and 3.103 billion yuan respectively, with an additional profit forecast for 2026), earnings per share of 0.84, 0.98, and 1.14 yuan, respectively. The current stock price is 6.77 yuan. The corresponding PE is 8.1X/6.9X/5.9X, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: risk of deterioration of the macroeconomic environment, risk of falling commodity prices, risk of increasing bad accounts receivable, risk of demand falling short of expectations, risk of business development falling short of expectations, risk of untimely use of information and data updates.
