2023 年公司饲料业务营收64.92 亿元(+17.37%)，毛利率10.16%(+0.36pct)，销量280.41 万吨(+20.75%，其中外销190 万吨)，预计2024-2026 年饲料销量CAGR达20%，饲料业务销量稳健增长，依托原材料区位优势利润持续扩大。动保业务2023 年营收9.96 亿元(+5.93%)，毛利率62.57%(-3.27pct)。动保口蹄疫苗价格战接近尾声，2024 年公司将陆续推出猪腹泻苗等多款新品疫苗，伴随猪周期反转，公司动保业务盈利向上。The cost of pigs declined and increased steadily, and the feed business continued to grow. The “buy” rating company published the 2023 annual report and the first quarter report for 2024. The revenue for 2023 was 19.026 billion yuan (+11.99%), and net profit to the mother was 1,363 billion yuan (-585.55%). 2024Q1's revenue was $3,777 million (-2.93%), and net profit attributable to mother was $54 million (+478.54%). The company's pig breeding market is growing steadily, continuing to drive down breeding costs. Along with the reversal of the 2024H2 pig cycle, the company's profit is expected to improve. We raised the company's 2024-2025 profit forecast and added the 2026 profit forecast. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is 8.97/13.67/8.57 (the original forecast for 2024-2025 was 4.21/9.85) billion yuan, respectively. The corresponding EPS is 0.66/1.00/0.63 yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to PE 11.0/7.2/11.6 times The company's pig costs have declined and increased steadily, and the feed business continues to grow, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Continuing to reduce costs and increase efficiency in pig breeding, the steady growth cycle reverses the benefits of the company's pig breeding revenue of 5.541 billion yuan (+8.05%) in 2023, with 2,8,158 million pigs released throughout the year (+38.90%), with an average sales price of 14.2 yuan/kg. The full cost of 2023Q4 rose to 17.6 yuan/kg due to non-plague effects. 2024Q1 has released 647,200 pigs (+13.66%), reducing the total breeding cost to 16 yuan/kg (to around 15.3 yuan/kg in March 2024), and the full cost of 2024H2 is expected to drop to 15.5 yuan/kg. In terms of production indicators, 2024Q1's PSY reached 24.12, the average number of live pigs was 12, and the cost of 7 kg weaned piglets was 345 yuan/head. By the end of March 2024, the company was able to breed about 140,000 heads. The company is expected to release 3 to 3.5 million pigs in 2024, and achieve the target of 5 million pigs released in 2026-2027. The company's pig breeding continues to reduce costs and increase efficiency. The number of pigs released has increased steadily, and the reversal of the pig cycle has benefited.
The feed business is growing steadily, and the profit of the animal insurance business is improving
In 2023, the company's feed business revenue was 6.492 billion yuan (+17.37%), gross profit margin of 10.16% (+0.36pct), and sales volume of 2.8041 million tons (+20.75%, including export sales of 1.9 million tons). Feed sales are expected to reach 20% in 2024-2026. Feed business sales are growing steadily, and profits continue to expand based on the location advantage of raw materials. The animal insurance business generated revenue of 996 million yuan (+5.93%) in 2023, with a gross profit margin of 62.57% (-3.27pct). The price war for the animal insurance foot-and-mouth vaccine is coming to an end. In 2024, the company will launch various new vaccines, such as swine diarrhea vaccine, one after another. Along with the reversal of the pig cycle, the profit of the company's animal insurance business will increase.
Risk warning: The extent to which the price of feed raw materials has declined, the length of the loss cycle in the pig breeding industry, etc.